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July, 2024 1 Volume 6, Issue 3 This Special Hurricane Edition of the CARICAD Horizon was produced just before the arrival of Hurricane Beryl in the region. CARICAD extends sincere condolences, as well as our compassion and sympathy to those persons who suffered loss or damage in any form, during this painful, historic event.

2 Storm damage in the British Virgin Islands 2003. (Photos by Frankie Michael) Pages 4-6 CLICK ON ANY OF OUR ARTICLES TO GO DIRECTLY TO THAT ARTICLE Pages 7-9 Pages 10-14

3 C ARICAD’s most northerly member state is The Bahamas, the most southerly is Suriname, the most easterly is Barbados and the most westerly is Belize. That geographical reality means that the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes anywhere in the Caribbean is a matter of concern not only for the states and territories themselves but also for CARICAD as an institution of CARICOM. When member states are affected, CARICAD is affected. It means that those member states have to direct resources (including human) to urgent survival and recovery needs. CARICAD’s work is therefore disrupted and delayed. The disruption can extend beyond the borders of the affected state and include neighbouring member states. Whenever there is loss of life or great suffering in our member states, we suffer too. These are our people. Almost all of CARICAD’s member states are potentially vulnerable to the threat of storms and hurricanes. Vulnerability to natural hazards of all kinds is one of the greatest threats to Sustainable Development among Caribbean states. In fact, in some circles the Caribbean is considered the second most vulnerable region in the world to natural hazards. Remember that storms and hurricanes are not the only natural hazards. There are also volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts and wildfires. rainstorms, floods, The suite of human-activity-related hazards is even more numerous. This means that helping member states to become resilient to such threats is not only part of CARICAD’s mandate but a moral obligation. We define Resilience as ....the ability to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of hazards, emergencies and crises in a timely, effective, efficient and sustainable manner with the preservation and restoration of essential structures, systems, functions and services, to create capacity for transformation and future adaptation to new realities. CARICAD sees our strategic partnership with CDEMA as a vital capacity building mechanism for member states on our road to Resilience. Our commitment to working with CDEMA and other strategic partners to build Resilience among our Devon Rowe, Executive Director CARICAD member states is unwavering, especially in this the era of accelerated global Climate Change. This 2024 hurricane season edition of our Horizon newsletter is evidence not only of our commitment but our level of effort and our innovative mindset. Throughout this edition, CARICAD is pleased to provide you with some photographs from the Grenada Experience of 2004, all captured by Frankie Michael. I commend the 2024 edition to you and invite you to share it among your contacts. In that way you will be helping us to achieve the vision of a more resilient Caribbean.

4 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael By Franklyn Michael H urricane Ivan struck Grenada on September 7th, 2004, and it was the strongest hurricane for a decade at that time. Ivan had winds sometimes in excess of 130 miles per hour and was classified as a strong Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It later became a Category 5 system in other parts of the Caribbean. Ivan created such destruction that the people of Grenada were left in a state of despair and desperation, with a death toll of 37 people. It seemed that no Grenadian escaped the effects of Ivan. Approximately 90 per cent of the houses were damaged or destroyed and, according to government reports at that time, 274 locations functioned as shelters in the beginning. It was estimated that about 6,000 Grenadians took refuge in those locations. All utilities including telephone service were severely damaged and disrupted. The estimated financial impact was about US$900 million. That figure was more than twice the country's GDP in 2004. The hurricane damaged the country extensively, with 90 per cent or approximately 27,000 houses severely damaged or destroyed. It was estimated that 30 per cent or approximately 10,000 units would have needed complete rebuilding. Seventy per cent or approximately 22,000 houses required major repairs. The four parishes most severely affected by the hurricane were: St. George, St. David, St. Andrew and St. Patrick at that time, held 80 per cent of Grenada’s population. It was also believed that in 2004, women headed almost 50 per cent of households. People older than 65 years of age accounted for 16 per cent of the population in 2004. The hurricane had a major negative impact on household incomes and savings. Unemployment inevitably rose in the tourism and agriculture sectors (the main economic activities then) in particular because of the nature of the impact of the hurricane. The prospects for return to work in the short-term in those sectors was limited. CDEMA responded to Grenada immediately along with many of its regional and international partners as well as Caribbean Governments that responded directly to Grenada’s needs. The list of such partners • Continues on next page

5 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page is a long one and it is impractical to reproduce it here. I was among the first of the Disaster Managers dispatched to Grenada by CDEMA. I arrived two days after the hurricane struck. I was scheduled to arrive the day before, but that emergency flight was already full of military officials. I was flown into Grenada by a young Grenadian pilot who volunteered to make the flight despite all the limitations at the airport for aircraft after the hurricane. There were two other persons already in Grenada from CDEMA, the then Deputy Director of CDEMA Ms. Audrey Mullings and the late Horatio Tuitt, Director of Emergency Operations in Montserrat. I was an experienced Disaster Manager but what I saw in those first few weeks in Grenada shook me to my emotional core. The hurricane brought immense suffering, privation and uncertainty to all of Grenada. When I saw the conditions under which some people had taken refuge, the scenarios almost brought me to tears. The seven Ds of Disaster were very evident. • Death • Damage • Destruction • Disruption • Delay • Disorder • Despair However, although there were concerns about national security and safety because the prison was damaged and some prisoners had escaped, or that there had been pockets of looting, the CDEMA team insisted that we should stay there. In our own words, we would be part of the solution. We could not exacerbate the problem by leaving because of concerns over personal safety. We worked with the Cabinet of Grenada, the volunteers at the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), the Police, regional military detachments, international and local NGOs to bring order to the chaos that Hurricane Ivan had created. We introduced structures, systems, strategies, we redefined roles, we delivered briefings and reports, conducted regular site inspections, created innovative methodologies and engaged with key local officials to deliver much needed results. We helped to build • Continues on next page

6 Grenada 2004 Photos by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page capacity among the local teams. Working in such a collaborative manner we were all able to bring back order and accountability to the situation. The international agencies established more permanent arrangements after several weeks, but those early days of Response proved to be a useful foundation for later actions for Early Recovery and later Reconstruction. The people of Grenada were not fatalistic, but many used their faith as their North Star. They were willing to endure hardships and work hard to make things better. They welcomed us among them. I made friends quickly in Grenada because of the nature and spirit of the people with whom I engaged. Several of those friendships have endured for the 20 years since the hurricane. CARICAD expresses solidarity with the people of Grenada as they will mark 20 years since the passage of Hurricane Ivan when September 7, arrives this year. We hope that the resilience you showed as a people then and the many lessons learnt in 2004 and 2005 are helping to make Grenada a more resilient nation today.

7 D r. Monica Masino is a native of the United States who spent 14 years living in Barbados and working for The University of the West Indies Open Campus. Dr. Masino is an innovative Educator, Academic Administrator, Consultant and Entrepreneur with a passion for empowering individuals and organisations. She held appointments such as Senior Education Consultant with ELMOD Consulting Inc., Senior Programme Officer, Prior Learning Assessment; Senior Programme Coordinator, Business Development Unit (BDU); Senior Lecturer and Programme Coordinator, Academic Programming and Delivery Unit of The University of the West Indies Open Campus; and Associate Dean with ITT Technical Institute. Dr. Monica Masino Dr. Masino holds a Doctorate in Educational Leadership from Argosy University, a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA), University of the People, a Master’s Degree in Technology Based Education and a Bachelor of Arts in Interdisciplinary Studies with a Minor in Human Studies from California State University Dominguez Hills. Dr. Masino’s entrepreneurial spirit has led her to launch successful ventures that address emerging needs in the education and consulting industries. Dr. Masino’s dynamic approach, coupled with her commitment to excellence, makes her a sought-after professional in her field. by Monica Masino, Ed.D. I grew up in rural Jackson, Louisiana on 28 acres of land that included a pond, barn, fields of green grass and crops such green peas, butter beans, corn, carrots, potatoes, okra, sweet potatoes, cabbage, tomatoes, peaches, plums, mustard greens, and hay -grass. We also had cows, pigs, chickens, goats, and a few bulls. We lived on the farm, and we often had to take my little sister on an adventure in the pastures so that she wouldn’t see our mother leave for work. In my childhood, sometimes as we played throughout the hills on my family’s property, the clouds overhead would turn dark and soon big raindrops would begin to fall as my sisters and I ran towards the house for shelter. Louisiana’s weather is humid during the summer months and really cold during the winter. It was especially scary for me when it rained. It would start out with light sprinkles before it began to pour. Soon after, in the distance, I would hear the thunder which sounded like someone was moving parts of the earth. My mother would always say that it was the Lord moving his furniture around. Her words would always bring me comfort, at least, until the lightning struck across the sky. I used to think it was so beautiful as it lit up the sky but that quickly changed when I watched lightning strike a tree branch and knock it off the tree. I was in shock at the power of a lightning strike and have been afraid of lightning since. Flooding also went with the heavy rain. The rain flooded the fields, the yard, and the ponds. The water rose so high that it allowed fish to flow out of the pond. A few days later when the water began to recede, we were able to catch catfish and crayfish in the ditch near the road. We were one of the lucky families that was spared from house flooding as our house sat on cement blocks, high enough to avoid the flood water. I remember once we travelled to a relative’s house and our cousins were outside playing in the rain in a small boat. The area where the pigs were kept had filled with water from the rain, and our cousins had taken out the boat so we could go on an adventure. We took turns riding across from one section of the pen to the other. However, the fun soon ended when • Continues on next page

8 • Continued from previous page we saw a snake cruising across the water, and we all stood up yelling and screaming and almost turned over the boat. We made it back to the gate safely. Although those childhood memories still linger in my mind, I had not met with any other adverse weather conditions as an adult, well, until I moved to Barbados. I am familiar with hurricane preparations, preparing for possible flooding, possible water and power outages and I think having this knowledge prepared me for Hurricane Matthew in 2016. I had to draw on the skills I learned from childhood. I was in the office at Cave Hill Campus, when there was a knock on my office door; it was the Administrative Assistant, Mrs. Heather Marshall. Mrs. Marshall enquired if I had checked my email as there was a notice of adverse weather and the Cave Hill Campus would be closing at noon. She enquired if I had water and groceries and I told her that I was good. Little did I know that my resolve would be tested in the days ahead. As I left the office, I noticed the clouds began to change — they were darker, and the wind began to blow harder. I ran into traffic leaving the campus as I drove towards the highway. I decided to take a short-cut and I met so much more traffic that I came to a stand-still. I was in the middle of the memorial event for the late Prime Minister, Mr. David Thomspon who had recently passed away and people were paying their respects. I was able to make it through the local traffic to the highway, but it was filled with traffic too. From my car window, I could see the wind blowing against the palm trees; the wind was shaking the car as I drove, the clouds were darker and outside looked like it was night. I reached home that evening around 6:30 p.m., I warmed some food, washed, and dried clothes, and waited for what was to come next. I was able to do that because I still had electricity. The rest of the evening was quiet as I settled into bed. However, around 12:00 midnight, the rain began to pour harder, as the wind blew against the window as if something or someone was trying to get in. I could barely hear myself think as the rain fell on the roof of the house. I peeped out the window, but I could not see anything as the electricity had gone. At one point, I heard strange noises coming from the attic and that intensified my discomfort. I’m not sure when I finally drifted off to sleep. The next morning (Saturday) it was still raining, and the wind was whistling throughout the house. The wind blew so hard that the worn latches on the windows could not stop the inside windows from blowing open. I found twine and tied it to the windows, but it would not hold, and water began blowing through the window. There I was trying to tie the twine around all the windows, but I had nothing steady to balance against to keep it from being blown open again. That’s when I had the idea of tying the twine onto the leg of the couch but even the couch was being pulled towards the window. I placed the entertainment centre and loveseat in front of the couch to help brace the pull. Just when I thought I had solved one problem, there was another at the back door. The wind began to blow water through the louvres and it spread all over the floor. In a panic, I pulled towels from the cabinet and spread them on the floor to help soak up the water. However, water still came in and I had to use my bed spread to try to soak up more of it. With things secured, I went looking for food. I know that the food in the refrigerator would stay cool just as long as I did not leave the door open. I took out some leftovers, but I did not have a way to warm up the meal. However, I had an idea, I took out one of my old pots and put it on the stove and placed newspaper at the bottom. I also found some coals I used for barbequing and placed two in the pot and lit the newspaper. I waited for the coals to become heated then I placed aluminium foil over the top. I placed chicken and rice on the foil and covered it. Soon I began to smell the delicious scent of hot food. • Continues on next page

9 • Continued from previous page Photo by Frankie Michael When I finished warming the food, I was not sure how to extinguish the coals and I did not want to use water because I did not want smoke in the house because I had tied down the windows. I decided to leave the pot on the veranda so that the rain would put it out. When I turned the knob on the back door, I could not open it. The knob turned but the door was stuck, the door was soaking up the water that fell on it and had swollen within the frame and I was trapped in the house. I was not too concerned about being trapped in the house as I had nowhere to go. Later that afternoon, the property owner came over to check on me. We spoke through the door as he pulled the knob from his side and I pushed from my side, but we could not get the door open; so, we agreed he would continue to check on me to make sure everything was okay. By Sunday morning the rain had stopped, and the sky was clear. From the window, I could see downed powerlines. The property owner showed up with a crowbar to assist with opening the door. I had been without power; the Internet was out and my cell phone battery was close to dying but I knew where I could charge my phone and wash-up... on the UWI Campus. I ventured out towards the campus on Monday morning and ran into an overwhelming amount of traffic. Traffic signals were without power and there were cars everywhere, trying to get to their destinations. I reached the campus approximately three hours later. It was good to see other people and to see that all of us were okay. The experience brought back memories from my childhood from the pouring rain, thunder, lightning, and evening flooding. I discovered that no matter where you live, you cannot escape storms as they are a part of everyday life. I was able to manage the experience by relying on skills I learned during my childhood experiences growing up in Louisiana.

10 Researched and written by Franklyn V. Michael This article is intended to raise awareness of the unfolding combined threat of Climate Change and hurricanes. The public sector must lead efforts to build resilience, not in isolation from other sectors but with effective plans, projects and programmes that will reduce this region’s vulnerability to hazards of all kinds. Storms and hurricanes may be the most memorable and enduring in terms of their effects, but all natural hazards can set back our development by decades as the volcanic events in Montserrat have demonstrated. PLANNING CONTEXT T he earth’s climate is changing. Climate Change is real. Global warming is taking place right now. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says: The combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.11 degrees F (0.0 6 degrees C) per decade since 1850 or about 2 degrees F in total. The rate of warming since 1982 is more than three times as fast, 0.36 degrees F (0. 20 degrees C) per decade. The Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change inter alia, has concluded that: Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1 degrees C above 1850 – 1900 in 2011-2020. Last year 2023, was the warmest year on record. The global mean temperature from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record for that period. The year-to-date 2024, has been warmer than 2023. The air over the earth is warmer. Warmer air can hold more moisture. More moisture in storm and hurricane systems, means heavier rain. Heavier rain greatly increases the chances of floods in stormaffected areas. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON STORMS There is a growing consensus of scientific opinion that tropical storms and hurricanes could become stronger and more destructive because of Climate Change. Remember that a storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach 74 miles per hour (mph). The perspective that is emerging, is that Climate Change may not necessarily make storms appear more frequently, but it will probably make them stronger when they do appear. Sea-level rise is a component of global Climate Change. Some experts estimate that global sea level has risen by six inches since 1900. The higher the rise in sea level, the greater will be the storm surge impact on low-lying islands and flat coastal areas during storm impacts. We must bear in mind that in storms and hurricanes, 90 per cent of direct deaths are attributed to the impact of water, especially storm surge and flooding. There are reports that the frequency of major hurricanes is now three times greater than it was in 1980. Major hurricanes are those rated in categories 3 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Those storms have sustained winds greater than 111 mph and storm surge greater that nine feet above normal tide levels. The greater frequency of major hurricanes dramatically increases the likelihood of severe negative effects. Scientists have concluded that one likely consequence of Climate Change is the rapid intensification of storms to hurricane strength. • Continues on next page Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD

11 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page Hurricane status begins with sustained winds of 74 mph. The number of storms that intensified from Category 1 to Category 3 or greater, within 36 hours, has increased dramatically during the last 50 years. In 2017, Hurricane Maria (affected several CARICAD member states), increased in strength from a tropical storm to a Category 5 Hurricane within 48 hours. Maria caused the highest death toll from a hurricane in the Caribbean for more than 35 years. Storms like Maria that intensify so quickly, tend to be among the most powerful and destructive. Their likely tracks are also more difficult to predict. Current research suggests that storms are strengthening more quickly to hurricane status in the Caribbean Sea than in the Gulf of Mexico. This means the Caribbean region is now under greater threat from the likelihood of rapidly strengthening storms into hurricanes. Tropical storms and hurricanes are regarded by experts as the weather systems that create the costliest damage. The picture that continues to emerge, is clear — the threats of negative effects from storms and hurricanes may become even worse than they have been recently. A direct causal relationship may not yet be embraced by all scientists but there is an undeniable statistical correlation between Climate Change and the increasing threat of emergent, worse effects. This should give policy and decision makers in our region, yet another wake-up call in terms of our vulnerability and the need for proactive approaches to Disaster Risk Reduction. The concept of the Disaster Cycle reminds us that Mitigation, Preparedness and Preparation when done effectively, can dramatically reduce the losses, cost, time and negative effects in the Response, Recovery and Rehabilitation phases afterwards. That reality suggests that in the years to come, we in the Caribbean should be placing greater emphasis on Mitigation, Preparedness and Preparation for Vulnerability and Risk Reduction as our pathway to Resilient Development. • Continues on next page

12 Storm damage in the British Virgin Islands 2003. Photos by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page IMPLICATIONS FOR LEADERS/MANAGERS Remember the adage, proper planning prevents poor performance. When we perform poorly in crises people die, people suffer, and people sustain great losses. Our Caribbean region must also prepare for the likely impacts of Climate Change on mental health. In its 2022 Mental Health and Climate Change Policy Brief, the WHO states: “Climate change also exacerbates many social and environmental risk factors for mental health and psychosocial problems, and can lead to emotional distress, the development of new mental health conditions and a worsening situation for people already living with these conditions. Therefore, in preparing for and responding to this growing emergency, there is an increasing need for the provision of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS). There is growing evidence of the various mechanisms by which climate change is affecting mental health. Countries need to dramatically accelerate their responses to climate change, including efforts to address its impacts on mental health and psychosocial well-being. The systemic, global and potentially irreversible effects of the crisis have given rise to emerging concepts such as climate change anxiety, solastalgia, ecoanxiety and ecological grief. In many cases, these reactions may represent understandable and congruent responses to the crisis the world faces, and yet their impact can be significant. Although there is a need for further research, the world has sufficient experience and evidence to guide immediate action.” In some CARICAD member states our population profiles are changing. We now have many more senior citizens. That reality must be incorporated into our plans to adapt to Climate Change. Our air temperatures are getting hotter. Will that make outdoor, physical work less attractive and unhealthy? Will our young people be spending even more time indoors? Will that make them less physically fit to deliver emergency responses? • Continues on next page

13 • Continued from previous page TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES The schema shown below represents a conceptual framework that can be used to clarify our mindset when we think of Resilience. That mindset can be used to drive the processes that are laid out in the matrix that follows the schema. The matrix we have created on the following page is intended for managerial cliff-notes that public sector managers can use for the action areas that they will work on in concert with the government, the private and non-government sectors as a matter of urgency. • Continues on next page

14 PHASES OF THE DISASTER CYCLE KEY PROCESSES, PROCEDURES & SYSTEMS MITIGATION • Vulnerability and Risk Assessment • Hazard Mapping • Updated Legislation • Planning for Persons with Special Needs • Comprehensive Land use Planning • Modernised Building Codes • Insurance • Design and construction of key public infrastructure • Sea Defences • Environmental Monitoring and Management • Policy Clarity – comprehensive • Gender Sensitive Preparedness Plans • Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) • Mutual Aid Agreements • Commitments to CDEMA – strategic and operational • Resource allocations • Well built and equipped Emergency Operations Centres PREPAREDNESS • Well appointed and well-staffed National Disaster Offices • Public Awareness and Information Dissemination • Emergency Broadcast Systems • Emergency Warehouses and stockpiles • Training for key personnel • Maintenance of Key Infrastructure • Regular Simulation Exercises • Effective Emergency Telecommunications • Precautionary Evacuations • Tracing systems for victims and affected persons • Search and Rescue Capacity • Emergency Medical Response Capacity • Impact, Damage and Needs Assessment • Restoration of Essential Services • Emergency Shelter and other Accommodation Arrangements RESPONSE • Security and Safety Arrangements • Management of Relief Programmes • Information Dissemination • Emergency Repairs to Buildings and other Facilities • Disease, Vector and Vermin Control Programmes • Arrangements for Mass burials – if required • Debris Consolidation and Removal • Clean ups • Emergency Transport and Traffic Arrangements • Effective Communications Systems • Crisis Counselling RECOVERY, RECONSTRUCTION & REHABILITATION • Policy Redefinition and Adaptation • Long-term Debt Management • Long-term Aid Management • Management of Recovery Services • Restoration and Revival of Livelihoods and Economic Activities • Restoration of Utilities • Longer-term Social Assistance Programmes • Housing Solutions • Restorative Construction of Essential Infrastructure • Coastal Zone Repairs and New Construction • Reforestation • Continued from previous page PREPARE, PERFORM, TRANSFORM Public sector managers must make a sustained and concerted effort to understand the risks that the combined forces of Climate Change and storms will bring to our Region. Adopt a holistic perspective. Managers must take on the responsibility of leading the charge for readiness and resilience by following an approach such as what we have laid out above. Incorporate agreed actions in Strategic, Operational and Work Plans. Monitor, assess, review and realign each year, as changing circumstance unfold. Managers must see that transformative changes for resilience become embedded in the work culture of their organisations specifically and the public service in general. CARICAD hopes that readers who have professional and social relationships with our policy makers will continue to make the case for urgent policy and strategy action because Climate Change in concert with storms and hurricanes is already presenting us with its many negative effects. Those could become long-term impacts unless holistic, concerted action is taken now. KEY SOURCES OF INFORMATION & REFERENCES FOR THIS ARTICLE • How Climate Change makes Hurricanes More Destructive – Environmental Defence Fund 2024 • A Force of nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate – Angel Colbert (Phd), NASA • Atlantic hurricanes are Getting More Dangerous More Quickly – Brian Handwerk, 2023 • Climate Change Makes Cyclones More Intense and Destructive, Scientists Say – Agence France Press 2023 • Mental Health and Climate: Policy Brief – WHO 2022

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A Poem by Franklyn Michael Bulletin, advisory, warning, threat Easterly, Tropical Wave coming Developing into depression, storm or mega hurricane Progression of threat rapidly grows exponential Cumulonimbus towers passionately kiss the Atlantic Energy sucked-up, bound-up and spirally wound-up Could unleash damage, destruction, despair on a necklace of islands Silent swells, forerunners of storm surging inundations Information dissemination on schedule, intensifies, magnifies Anxiety rises and fear escalates Hurricane Hunter, Big Brother at the ready Aviation and technology evolution, courage and knowledge interplay Real time radar, early warning, surgically precise timing Science averting tragedy in the twenty first century Dawn, morning, midday, night or sunset Technology watching, overseeing Perturbation, circulation, motion, rotation full of scudding rain Location, direction, speed and power-potential Classified, categorised, judgements, frantic and frenetic Codified category identified, unseen atmospheric reins and stirrup Cone of uncertainty, focus of analyses and frantic deliberations Pontification, discussion and prognostications Experts opine, residents align, Social Media virally flies and lies Reputations enhanced, narcissistic egos inflate Forecasters skills discussed and debated; widely Conscious that poor judgement may truncate chosen career Be accurate, professional, optimistic, reassuring Yet sobering thought, inexact science, accountability no authority Rush, crush, antagonising, confronting Fuel queues slithering, snaking Supermarkets urgently stock-in and stock-out again Non-perishables, durables, indisputably essential Dry and hard, not fresh, not wet, or soft but sealed; hermetic Long shelf-life consumables ’cause electricity interruption might be abrupt The elixir of life priceless but pricey cause of accusations Sodium induced hypertension, stress over scarce medications Secure the critical documents, favourite photos, hear the strident cries Will a category five brush, impact or decimate Earth’s rotation could be our scientific delivery Coriolis Force, forcing northward curl before system gets here September the peak we must remembering But we have year-round peak for natural hazard vulnerability (Photo by Franklyn Michael)

17 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael By Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD T he provision of early and ideally, accurate information about tropical weather systems (Depressions, Storms and Hurricanes) is vital. It is an integral part of effective Preparedness. Weather information can save lives and help to dramatically reduce damage, destruction, disruption, delay, disorder and despair. That is of course assuming that the appropriate Preparedness and Response actions are taken at the Regional, National, Organisational, Community, Family and Individual levels. In the CARICAD member state context, whenever there is a significant weather system developing in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) issues a range of advisory information (products). The information is produced both as texts and graphics. The products are made public at specified times. The main products issued as text are: • Public Advisory • Forecast Advisory • Tropical Cyclone Discussion • Wind Speed Probability We may be less familiar with the graphics. They are: • Track Forecast Cone • Watch and Warning Graphic • Wind Speed Probability • Wind Field Graphic • Storm Surge – Watch/Warning (USA, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) The NHC makes the products public at standard times. In the case of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean area the times are 5:00 a.m., 11:00 a.m., 5:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). EDT coincides with Eastern Caribbean Time in the Northern Hemisphere summer. The NHC issues Intermediate Public Advisories at specific three-hour intervals in between the hours of the regular advisories. The NHC also issues Special Advisories if there is an unanticipated but significant change regarding a weather system. Whenever a weather system dissipates the NHC no longer issues advisories on it. However the NHC continues to issue advisories on a tropical system that moves away from the Tropics and becomes a Sub Tropical System. People who may have a deep interest or specialist weather information needs are encouraged to visit • Continues on next page

18 • Continued from previous page the NHC website for details of the purpose and nature of all the Advisories, both texts and graphics. However, for our general readership we provide a synopsis of the Public Advisory Text product on the next page. Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory The Public Advisory, as the name implies, is for the general public. It may include a Storm or Hurricane Watch or a Warning. In broad terms the Advisory focuses on: • The position of the Tropical Cyclone, stated in Latitude and Longitude • Distances from reference points e.g. Barbados, Antigua, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica • The maximum sustained winds • Current direction of travel of the system • Speed of motion of the entire system • Summary of the current coastal watches and warnings and changes to those, if any • Features of the system such as intensity, pressure • Spread of storm force winds • Forecast track for the next 72 hours. Occasionally the next five days • Anticipated hazards to land during the Watch or Warning period – including storm surge, wind, rainfall and rip current risks The Public Advisories are normally issued by the NHC using the 24-hour clock based on Universal Time Coordinated (UTC). UTC is also known as Z or Zulu time. The use of a 24-hour clock reduces the chance of confusing the time as to whether it is day or night. UTC or Z time has replaced what used to be universally known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). The official changeover took place in 1972. This means that Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT) remains four hours BEHIND UTC time. This means that 2100 UTC (9:00 p.m.) is 5:00 p.m. ECT. We encourage you to become more familiar with the Public Advisories as they are issued during the hurricane season in particular especially as the NHC website will be accessible on most technology driven devices, including your cell phone.

19 Researched and written by Franklyn Michael Supplementary Associate, CARICAD F orecasting for the hurricane season is commonplace today. There are several institutions, agencies and media services that engage in the practice, including the UK Met Office and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, However, the Colorado State University (CSU) in the USA, is regarded as the pioneering institution in hurricane season forecasting. The late Dr. William (Bill) Gray is widely recognised as the pioneer of Atlantic Hurricane season forecasting. He issued the first such forecast in 1984. Dr. Gray continued for 30 years before retiring. This means that the 2024 forecasts are the forty-first. He died in 2016. Dr. Phil Klotzbach replaced Dr. Gray in leading tropical meteorology research at CSU since 2006. The CSU team for the April forecast included Professor Michael Bell, Ph.D., Alex DesRosiers, and Levi Silvers. The Team for the June 11 forecast was listed as: Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, Alexander J. DesRosiers, and Levi Silvers with Special Assistance from Carl J. Schreck III. The CSU began releasing a pre-season or April forecasts in 1995. They usually issue forecasts each year in: April, June, July, August and November. The special hurricane season edition of the CARICAD Horizon newsletter is usually circulated between the June and July forecasts from the CSU. This means that in this edition we are only able to compare the April and June forecasts with the average as we have again done here. The CSU released the pre-season forecast on April 4, 2024. The forecast received widespread media and scientific attention because it called for the most active season ever predicted. It called for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. It is both notable and memorable that in 2020 there were 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes. The CSU predicts that activity in 2024 will be about 170% of the average season from 1991–2020. In 2023, hurricane activity was about 120% of the average. When you examine the forecast table you will see that the April forecast suggests a remarkably high probability of landfall in the Caribbean. That will be a great concern to all of us if it holds true as a prediction. The unusually high numbers in the April forecast are based on a combination of scientific realities and factors that are intertwined. Foremost among them is the La Niña cycle that we are entering and the exceptionally warm temperatures that have arisen in the Atlantic Ocean. In April 2024, the Atlantic Ocean was already as warm as is normally expected for July. It was 2-5 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Warm ocean water is regarded as the “fuel” for storms. The climatology is complex and involved but the takeaway is that the record shows that in general terms there are more storms in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea in a La Niña cycle than in an El Niño cycle. We are coming out of an El Niño cycle. La Niña conditions are intensifying and the peak of those conditions is expected to coincide with the peak of the hurricane season in August – October 2024. When La Niña conditions follow El Niño conditions, the record shows that storm formation is greater in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The record shows that in La Niña years named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes are all greater than in El Niño years. Additionally, in La Niña years, storms appear more likely to pass through the Caribbean archipelago. Storms will be less likely to curve to the north this year, away from the Caribbean. These are observations based on review of records and data. They are not laws of nature. Strong storms have occurred outside of La Niña years too. TRUNCATED SUMMARY OF THE CSU FORECASTS for 2024 TO DATE • Continues on next page

20 30-YEAR AVERAGE Named Storms 14.4 Hurricanes 7.2 Named Storm days 69.4 Major Hurricanes 3.2 Hurricane Days 27 Major Hurricane Days 7 Caribbean Landfall 47% APRIL 23 JUNE 23 11 115 5 45 13 66% 11 115 5 45 13 66% CHANGE - APRIL TO JUNE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE • Continued from previous page CSU UPDATED FORECAST PUBLISHED ON JUNE 11, 2024 “We have maintained our forecast for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. We anticipate that La Niña conditions will develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, likely resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain at record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early June outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity”. SOURCE: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado SOURCE: Forecasts of storms (yellow) and hurricanes (red) in April outlooks from Colorado State University from 1996 through 2024. This year's record April forecast is highlighted by the dotted white arrows. (Data: CSU; Graph: Infogram) • Continues on next page

21 • Continued from previous page (the average from 1880–2020 is 47%). CONCLUDING THOUGHTS There are several takeaways for all of us. These include the following: • There was general agreement among scientists in April that the 2024 season will be a highly active one. • The CSU did not change its forecast in any major way from April to June. The forecast remains unchanged for an exceptionally active hurricane season. • There will be less windshear in the Caribbean Sea and Western Atlantic Ocean because 2024 peak hurricane season will occur under La Niña conditions. Many more named storms are likely to remain active instead of being subject to wind shear as an El Niño year. • More storms might pass through our chain of islands this year than the long-term average suggests. The CSU June forecast suggests that the probability of a major hurricane passing through the Caribbean Island-chain is 66% • More storms are likely to develop in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in comparison to last year. • The Caribbean Region remains very vulnerable to the threat of storms and hurricanes, and this may be at a higher level of probability in 2024. • Climate Change may be making the Caribbean more vulnerable now than before. • We must appreciate that proper preparation makes us less vulnerable. • Although the CSU forecasts are widely acknowledged as realistic and reliable, those forecasts cannot predict the likely level of damage in any given hurricane impact zone in the Caribbean. CARICAD implores all our readers who reside in the Caribbean to take responsibility for preparing yourself, your family and your home for what may be a hectic and potentially devasting hurricane season one again. This newsletter is part of CARICAD’s efforts to help you. Note: Seasonal forecasts are updated during the season. Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael

22 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael By Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD T he information shown below was taken from web pages of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) • References to the Atlantic Hurricane Season pertain to the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. • A tropical storm is not designated a hurricane until it has sustained winds of 74 miles per hour (74 mph) or greater. • In the years from 1966 to 2020 there were no major hurricanes in the Atlantic in the years shown below:  1968  1972  1986  1994  2013 • The yearly averages of storms from 1930 to 2020 are:  Named storms – 12.3  Hurricanes – 6.4  Major hurricanes – 2.5 • From 1966 to 2020 there were at least four named storms in each year. • There were seven major hurricanes in 2005. That same year there was a storm that had both the lowest central pressure and the fastest intensification – Hurricane Wilma. • In 2020 the Atlantic basin had 30 named storms. Fourteen became hurricanes and six became major hurricanes of Category 3 status or higher. The previous record of 28 storms was set in 2005. The first storm was Arthur, formed on May 16. The official list of names was required by the time Wilfred appeared on September 18. The Greek alphabet was used for the remainder of the season. That was only the second time. The records date from 1851.  “Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but was slightly below average in terms of the number of major hurricanes. In 2022, 14 named storms formed, of which eight became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.” • The longest lasting hurricane on • Continues on next page

23 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page a worldwide basis was Hurricane John. That tropical cyclone lasted for 30 days as a typhoon in the Pacific in 1994. • The deadliest tropical cyclone remains Bhola. That storm killed more than 300,000 in Bangladesh in 1970. It became know as the Great Cyclone. • There were two occasions when there were four hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time. The occasions were August 22nd, 1893, and September 25th, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl. • Cuba and The Bahamas have both been directly hit by more that 60 hurricanes in recorded history. However, Cuba is the only Caribbean country among the top 10 list of countries hit by tropical cyclones since 1970. • The earliest recorded hurricane for the Atlantic season occurred in 1908 on March 7. The latest was Hurricane Alice in 1954. Alice appeared on December 31 and lasted until January 5, 1955. • About 85% of intense hurricanes and about 60% of smaller storms originate what are called Easterly Waves that start over Africa and move westwards over the Atlantic Ocean. • The decision to start the hurricane season on June 1 and end on November 30 was taken in 1965. Prior to that, dates such as June 15 and November 15 were used. • “The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor hurricane days, and 96% of the major hurricane days occurring then, (Landsea (NHC) 1993). Maximum activity occurs in early to mid September. ‘Out of season’ tropical cyclones primarily occur in May or December.” • The physics that drives wind damage in hurricanes are not the mathematically linear forces. This means that a Category 5 storm could cause up to 250 times the damage of a Category 1 hurricane of the same size.

24 Researched by Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD A CYCLONE, DISTURBANCE, HURRICANE “A tropical cyclone is a generic term for a lowpressure system that formed over tropical waters (25°S to 25°N) with thunderstorm activity near the center of its closed, cyclonic winds. Tropical cyclones derive their energy from vertical temperature differences, are symmetrical, and have a warm core. If it lacks a closed circulation, it is called a tropical disturbance. If it has a closed circulation but under 39 mph (34 knots, or 17 metres per second) maximum sustained surface winds, it is called a tropical depression. When winds exceed that threshold, it becomes a tropical storm and is given a name. Once winds exceed 74 mph (64 knots, 33 metres per second) it will be designated a hurricane (in the Atlantic or East Pacific Oceans) or a typhoon (in the northern West Pacific).” Tropical Disturbances -> Tropical Depressions -> Tropical Storms -> Hurricane or Typhoon. SOURCE: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration References: Holland, G.J. (1993): “Ready Reckoner” – Chapter 9, Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, WMO/TC-No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, World Meteorological Organization; Geneva, Switzerland Neumann, C.J. (1993): “Global Overview” – Chapter 1″ Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, WMO/TC-No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, World Meteorological Organization; Geneva, Switzerland UTC TIME, GMT, Z TIME “What is UTC time?”, or “what is GMT time?”, or “What is Z time?”, the answer is they are time schemes. Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) used to be Greenwich Mean Time and Zulu Time (Z). This is the time at the Prime Meridian given in hours and minutes on a 24-hour clock. Most satellite pictures will give the time code next to the time taken with a UTC, GMT, or Z, but they are the same time zone. The conversion table for local times can be found below. On most satellite pictures and radar images the time will be given. If it’s not in local time then it will usually be given as UTC, GMT, or Z time. To convert this to your local time it is necessary to subtract the appropriate number of hours for the Western Hemisphere or add the correct number of hours for the Eastern Hemisphere. And don’t forget the extra hour adjustment for Daylight Savings Time or Winter Time over Standard Time for your zone. Local Time Zone Atlantic Daylight Time (ADT) Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) Time Adjustment (hours) -3 -4 SOURCE: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration A STORM SURGE Along the coast, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane. In the past, large death tolls have resulted from the rise of the ocean associated with many of the major hurricanes that have made landfall. Hurricane Katrina (2005) is a prime example of the damage and devastation that can be caused by surge. At least 1,500 people lost their lives during Katrina and many of those deaths occurred directly, or indirectly, as a result of storm surge. Storm Surge vs. Storm Tide Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases. Factors Impacting Surge Storm surge is produced by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge of the low pressure associated with intense storms is minimal in comparison to the water being forced toward the shore by the wind. (Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA) SOURCE: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration One of the earliest forecasting tools was the use of atmospheric pressure. Soon, after the invention of the barometer, it was found that there were natural • Continues on next page

25 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page fluctuations in air pressure even if the barometer was kept at the same elevation. During times of stormy weather the barometric pressure would tend to be lower. During fair weather, the barometric pressure was higher. If the pressure began to lower, that was a sign of approaching inclement weather. If the pressure began to rise, that was a sign of tranquil weather. SOURCE: Meteorologist Jeff Haby THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) As a specialised agency of the United Nations, WMO is dedicated to international cooperation and coordination on the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the land and oceans, the weather and climate it produces, and the resulting distribution of water resources. WMO supports National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their work and in meeting their international commitments in the areas of disaster risk reduction, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainable development. SOURCE: World Meteorological Organization THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. The NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards. The NHC vision is to be America's calm, clear, and trusted voice in the eye of the storm and, with its partners, enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. To meet its mission, the NHC is composed of several units. The Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) maintains a continuous watch on tropical cyclones and areas of disturbed weather within the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The HSU prepares and issues analyses and forecasts in the form of text advisories and graphical products. The HSU issues coastal tropical cyclone watches and warnings for the United States and its Caribbean territories and provides watch and warning recommendations to other World Meteorological • Continues on next page

26 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page Organization (WMO) Region IV meteorological services. The HSU also conducts an extensive outreach and education programme, training United States (U.S.) emergency managers and representatives from many other countries affected by tropical cyclones. SOURCE: National Hurricane Centre CDEMA The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) is a regional inter-governmental agency for disaster management in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). The agency was established in 1991 as CDERA (Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency) with primary responsibility for the coordination of emergency response and relief efforts to participating states that require such assistance. It transitioned to CDEMA in 2009 to fully embrace the principles and practice of Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM). CDM is an integrated and proactive approach to disaster management and seeks to reduce the risk and loss associated with natural and technological hazards and the effects of climate change to enhance regional sustainable development. All CARICOM and Non-CARICOM Member States of the Since 2009, CDEMA’s mandate has expanded to position the regional disaster management body more strategically to fully take up its role as facilitator, driver, coordinator and motivating force for the promotion and engineering of CDM in all PSs. CDEMA’s functions are as follows: 1. Mobilising and coordinating disaster relief; 2. Mitigating or eliminating, as far as practicable, the immediate consequences of disasters in Participating States; 3. Providing immediate and coordinated response by means of emergency disaster relief to any affected PS; 4. Securing, coordinating and providing to interested inter-governmental and nongovernmental organisations reliable and comprehensive information on disasters affecting any PS; 5. Encouraging – (i) the adoption of disaster loss reduction and mitigation policies and practices at the national and regional level; (ii) • Continues on next page Caribbean region are eligible for CDEMA membership. CDEMA presently comprises 19 Participating States (PS): Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Cayman Islands, Commonwealth of the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, Republic of Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Republic of Trinidad & Tobago, Turks & Caicos Islands and the Virgin Islands.

27 • Continued from previous page cooperative arrangements and mechanisms to facilitate the development of a culture of disaster loss reduction; and 6. Coordinating the establishment, enhancement and maintenance of adequate emergency disaster response capabilities among the PSs. SOURCE: The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) THE CARIBBEAN CATASTROPHIC RISK INSURANCE FACILITY (CCRIF SPC) CCRIF SPC is a segregated portfolio company, owned, operated and registered in the Caribbean. It limits the financial impact of catastrophic hurricanes, earthquakes and excess rainfall events to Caribbean and – since 2015 – Central American governments by quickly providing short-term liquidity when a parametric insurance policy is triggered. It is the world’s first regional fund utilising parametric insurance, giving member governments the unique opportunity to purchase earthquake, hurricane and excess rainfall catastrophe coverage with lowestpossible pricing. In 2007, the CCRIF was formed as the first multi-country risk pool in the world and was the first insurance instrument to successfully develop parametric policies backed by both traditional and capital markets. It was designed as a regional catastrophe fund for Caribbean governments to limit the financial impact of devastating hurricanes and earthquakes by quickly providing financial liquidity when a policy is triggered. In 2014, the facility was restructured into a segregated portfolio company (SPC) to facilitate expansion into new products and geographic areas and is now named CCRIF SPC. The new structure, in which products are offered through a number of segregated portfolios, allows for total segregation of risk. In April 2015, CCRIF signed an MOU with COSEFIN — the Council of Ministers of Finance of Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic — to enable Central American countries to formally join the Facility. CCRIF SPC is registered in the Cayman Islands and operates as a virtual organisation, supported by a network of service providers covering the areas of risk management, risk modelling, captive management, reinsurance, reinsurance brokerage, asset management, technical assistance, corporate communications and information technology. CCRIF offers earthquake, tropical cyclone and excess rainfall policies to Caribbean and Central American governments. In July 2019, the Facility, in collaboration with the World Bank and the U.S. State Department, introduced coverage for the fisheries sector for two member countries – Saint Lucia and Grenada. In October 2020, CCRIF introduced coverage for electric utilities. CCRIF helps to mitigate the short-term cash flow problems small developing economies suffer after major natural disasters. CCRIF’s parametric insurance mechanism allows it to provide rapid payouts to help members finance their initial disaster response and maintain basic government functions after a catastrophic event. SOURCE: The Caribbean Catastrophic Risk Insurance Facility Source: HWN.org accessed June 24th, 2024

28 ATLANTIC REGION STORM NAMES FOR 2024 Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Francine Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Milton Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sara Tony Valerie William T he World Meteorological Organization (WMO) maintains lists of hurricanes for each of the tropical cyclone prone areas of the world. The Atlantic area also includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. This action is in keeping with a convention that was agreed to in 1950 to formally name Atlantic hurricanes. A list was originally kept by the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in the USA. The responsibility passed to the WMO in 1953. The storms and hurricanes are referred to as Tropical Cyclones. The National Hurricane Center (RSMC Miami, FL), is responsible for the Atlantic basin west of 30°W. If a disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm the Center will give the storm a name. In 1953, the United States abandoned a confusing two-year-old plan to name storms by a phonetic alphabet (Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, etc.). That year, the weather services began using female names for storms. The practice of naming hurricanes solely after women came to an end in 1978 when men’s and women’s names were included in the Eastern North Pacific storm lists. In 1979, male and female names were included in lists for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The list of names comprises 21 alternating names of men and women. The names of men were not included until 1979. A separate set is used each year beginning with the first name in the set. The list is re-cycled in the sixth year. This means that for example, a list used in 2019 is re-cycled in 2025. The names used in 2022 will be used in 2028 with any required changes. In terms of required changes, the names of hurricanes which prove deadly (loss of life) or costly in terms of damage are retired so they will not be confused with any subsequent storms that could carry the same names. It is also considered as gesture of human sensitivity. Whenever there was a need for more than 21 names in a season, the Greek alphabet was used. In cases in which storms occur in December they are given names from the list for the current season. On the other hand, storms which occur very early in the calendar year are given names from the next season’s list. The letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not included because of the scarcity of names beginning with those letters. If over 21 named tropical cyclones occur in a year, the Greek alphabet was used following the “W” name. However in 2022 a supplementary of names was used and not the Greek alphabet. For several hundred years, many hurricanes in the West Indies were named after the particular saint’s day on which the hurricane occurred. Ivan R. Tannehill describes in his book Hurricanes the major tropical storms of recorded history and mentions many hurricanes named after saints. For example, there was “Hurricane Santa Ana” which struck Puerto Rico with exceptional violence on July 26, 1825, and “San Felipe” (the first) and “San Felipe” (the second) which hit Puerto Rico on September 13 in both 1876 and 1928. The first known meteorologist to assign names to tropical cyclones was Clement Wragge, an Australian meteorologist. Before the end of the 19th Century, he began by using letters of the Greek alphabet, then from Greek and Roman mythology and progressed to the use of feminine names. • Continues on next page

29 • Continued from previous page warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away. Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive given names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods. These advantages are especially important in exchanging detailed storm information between hundreds of widely scattered stations, airports, coastal bases, and ships at sea. The use of easily remembered names greatly reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. For example, one hurricane can be moving slowly westward in the Gulf of Mexico, while at exactly the same time another hurricane can be moving rapidly northward along the Atlantic coast. In the past, confusion and false rumours have arisen when storm advisories broadcast from one radio station were mistaken for 2025 Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy 2026 Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred The name lists have an international flavour because hurricanes affect other nations and are tracked by the public and weather services of countries other than the United States. Names for these lists agreed upon by the nations involved during international meetings of the World Meteorological Organization. As previously stated, the only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it. This is the list of primary Atlantic Hurricane names for 2025-2028: 2027 Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Imani Julian Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda 2028 Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Farrah Gaston Hermine Idris Julia Karl Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

30 A globally accepted system that uses latitude and longitude coordinates allows us to locate any place on the earth’s surface. Latitude measures locations on the globe that are north and south of the Equator. The measurements are stated in degrees, minutes and seconds. The highest numerical readings for latitude are ninety degrees north (90°N) and ninety degrees South (90°S). The Equator is zero degrees (0°). The Equator divides maps of the earth into Northern and Southern hemispheres. When lines of latitude are shown on a map, a globe or graphic of the earth they are displayed as parallel with the Equator and are equidistant. One degree of latitude is equivalent to 70 miles. Longitude measures locations east and west of the Prime Meridian. In 1884 it was agreed that the Prime Meridian identified a location in Greenwich, London, England. You should note that the most widely used meridian in more modern times is the IERS Reference Meridian. The International Reference Meridian (IERS) was devised from the Greenwich Meridian but it is slightly different. The difference between both is because of variations between astronomical and geodetic coordinates. Those differences are important in this age of satellite imagery. Lines of longitude are also stated in degrees, minutes and seconds. Longitude is measured in degrees that extend both east and west of the Prime Meridian to a maximum of one hundred and eighty degrees east and west (180°E or °W). The International Date line is at 180 degrees. The Prime Meridian is zero (0°) degrees. It divides maps of the world into the Eastern and the Western hemisphere. On a map, the lines of longitude meet at the North and South Poles. At the Equator one degree of longitude is equivalent to about 70 miles but only at the Equator. That distance becomes smaller and smaller until the longitude lines meet at the Poles on a map or a globe. Lines of longitude are known as meridians and not parallels. It is the intersection of the values for latitude and longitude that give a unique position for a specific location. The locations of storms or hurricanes are given in terms of latitude or longitude for the centre of the system, e.g. 17 degrees North and 60 degrees West. (17°N 60° W). That information makes it possible to track the movement of the system on a map or follow it on technology-created schematics. When you know the location of your country (a CARICAD member state for example) in latitude and longitude you can get the earliest indication of the proximity of your country to likely effects from the storm. Additionally, you will get a clearer picture by examining the predicted, projected path of the system as given in weather reports. Remember that the centre of the hurricane could be anywhere in the “cone of uncertainty’ and there is about a thirty per cent chance that the system will also travel outside the cone. You must be mindful that a hurricane can be hundreds of miles across and hurricane conditions might extend for a hundred miles or more from the centre. • Continues on next page

31 • Continued from previous page on a screen of an appliance or a device when following or tracking a weather system. We have prepared the table below for your information and convenience. It shows the latitude and longitude of all CARICAD member states. Remember that the precise location within a multiisland state for a particular island in that state could be slightly different from the figures shown. Further, in geographically large member states such as Guyana, Suriname and Belize the values will be different for different locations within the country. The cardinal points of the compass (north, south, east, and west), and the intercardinal points (north-east, north-west, south-east, southwest) allow us to create reference points for tracking weather systems. It is still very useful to refer to Hurricane Tracking Maps or to understand the East/ West and North/South locations of Caribbean countries and territories when you see the countries COUNTRY/TERRITORY Anguilla Antigua & Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Belize British Virgin Islands Dominica Grenada Guyana Jamaica Montserrat St. Kitts & Nevis Saint Lucia St. Vincent & the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos Islands 18 17 25 13 17 18 15 12 04 18 16 17 13 12 3. 10 21 The direction of travel of weather systems, storms and hurricanes may also be given in degrees in addition to North, East, West, South-South-West, North-West or North-North-West. In the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The systems usually arise off the coast of Africa and travel westward. There are some forces that promote a northward turn in the northern hemisphere. However, not every system curves. That is why in terms of degrees we usually hear from about two hundred and degrees ( 240°) ranging around to 340° degrees . It is really interesting to note that in 1999 Hurricane Lenny travelled from West to East. • Continues on next page LATITUDE IN DEGREES NORTH LONGITUDE IN DEGREES WEST 63 61 77 59 88 64 61 61 58 77 62 62 60 61 56 61 71

32 Source: https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/imagery/interactive-maps/the-world-real-time • Continued from previous page Note on the compass face above, due (exactly) East is ninety degrees (90°). Due South is one hundred and eighty degrees (180°). Due South is two hundred and seventy degrees (270°). Due north is zero degrees (0°). Note that The Bahamas is the most northerly CARICAD member state, Suriname is the most southerly, Barbados is the most easterly and Belize is the most westerly. Belize and Jamaica both straddle 17°N. Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines are about on the same line in terms of East to West location. In earlier years there was a tradition of identifying a ‘Hurricane Belt’ in the Atlantic Basin. It encompassed the northern part of the Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf of Mexico. It also included Florida and the Florida Keys. There is now a disinclination to consider the Hurricane Belt as having statistical certitude in the Caribbean context. It used to be said that Grenada was outside the Hurricane Belt but that kind of thinking started to change when Grenada was devastated by a major hurricane (Ivan) in 2004. It is worth remembering that in 1955 Hurricane Janet, a category five hurricane, caused widespread damage and several deaths in Barbados and the Grenadines. The Grenadines were considered to be outside the zone of greatest threat. Source: Shutterstock.com There is a simple way to orient yourself on the ground at home. When you face East (where the sun rises) North is on your left and South is on your right. When you face West (where the sun sets) North is on your right and South is on your left. In the old days of physical (printed) maps by convention the top of a map was usually North. Nowadays technology-driven Apps, GPS receivers and cell phones make finding your bearings a lot easier. However, remember that devices that rely on batteries for power will not work if the batteries do not work or if there is no back-up system.

33 by Franklyn Michael T he principal difference in the categorisation of a Hurricane over a Tropical Storm is the sustained wind speed. A storm has sustained wind speeds that are between 39 and 73 miles per hour (mph). Hurricanes have wind speeds that may range from 74 miles per hour to more than 160 mph. Both systems can have wind gusts that are higher than the sustained winds. In general terms, winds are not the storm/hurricane-generated hazard that cause the greatest fatalities. However, the winds do cause fatalities and extensive damage. It is useful to think of the effects of hurricane winds in two distinct but related categories, direct and indirect effects. Let us consider the effects of hurricane winds. DIRECT EFFECTS OF WIND DAMAGE Hurricane winds can do extensive damage by the sheer physical force of the winds. This happens when trees are uprooted, electrical poles toppled and perimetre fences flattened. The direct effects of wind damage can amount to millions of dollars in each event. In 2017 some of my colleagues and friends in the British Virgin Islands (BVI) described scenes like the following: • Yachts removed from marinas and deposited in main roads • Cars were lifted unto porches • Roofs were deposited in neighbouring front yards • Washers and dryers were removed from verandas and put into the streets • Windows were shattered by the force of the wind alone • Cutlery from one apartment was blown into another In 2004 in Grenada there was a famous story about a house that had “crossed the road” in a coastal village during Hurricane Ivan. Hurricane winds can also damage buildings directly because of the force of pressure differentials. The pressure exerted by the wind one side of a building or on the roof might be greater than on another side or part of the building. In a major hurricane that difference can be so great that in a manner of speaking the building virtually explodes. Buildings that have roof coverings made of materials other than concrete or have a very low pitch (angle) are particularly susceptible to this form of damage. The changes in force and pressure can be particularly marked if the eye of the storm passes over or near a particular location. In Hurricane Hugo in Montserrat in 1989, I can recall that my ears “popped” near the time of the passage of the eye of the storm because of pressure differentials. INDIRECT EFFECTS OF WIND DAMAGE There are indirect effects of hurricanes that can be thought of as a both a companion to and largely a consequence of the direct effects. The force of the wind can topple huge trees. When those trees fall if they fall on a house or vehicle great damage may result. Sadly, there have been cases where people have been killed when trees fell on houses. One of the most dramatic features of a major hurricane is the nature and extent of flying debris. Debris driven by hurricane force winds can do extensive damage. Portions of roofs, tree branches, garbage cans, outdoor furniture and construction debris can become truly lethal missiles on the winds of a major hurricane. • Continues on next page

34 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page One of the ways in which major hurricanes create indirect damage is through the impact of “horizontal rain”. If you have not experienced it, you might find it hard to believe. The force of the winds is enough to the send the rain forward parallel with the ground at building level. Most buildings especially houses are designed for normal rain that falls vertically; horizontal rain can cause extensive interior flooding. I attempted to capture the experience poetically in the poem, “Facing the Force” that we published in the 2021 edition. CREATING RESILIENCE TO HURRICANE WINDS It is important that we accept hurricanes as a part of the reality of Caribbean life that requires human behavioural change to promote higher levels of resilience. Experts in some quarters are predicting that hurricanes might become more powerful in the years ahead. Should that forecast prove to be accurate then we must bear the following in mind: in hurricanes, the wind force increases exponential. This means that in a hurricane, that is 25 mph stronger, the force of the winds will be 73% greater. • Countries should have cohesive policies for Disaster Risk Reduction in relation to all hazards particularly land zoning and physical planning • All our member states should work to create or revise their building codes and ensure that the appropriate resistance requirements for wind damage are included along with provisions for all major hazards • Rigorous standards should be introduced and maintained for construction materials to promote resistance to all hurricane hazards. The standards should be backed up with relevant, modernised, laws and regulations • The training that is formally provided in construction methods should be standardised to ensure the acquisition of skills and techniques related to hazards • The mechanisms that are used for building inspection should be vigorously implemented in all sectors • Continues on next page

35 CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Wellconstructed framed homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Irene of 1999, Katrina of 2005, and several others were Category One hurricanes at landfall in South Florida. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed framed homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894. CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017. CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The 1888, 1900, 1919, 1926 Great Miami, 1928 Lake Okeechobee/ Palm Beach, 1947, Donna of 1960 made landfall in South Florida as Category Four hurricanes. CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher). Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The Keys Hurricane of 1935 and Andrew of 1992 made landfall in South Florida as Category Five hurricanes.

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37 By Franklyn Michael I have found that one of the most challenging of the issues in helping to prepare communities for the effects of hurricanes is that there is a tendency to focus on the characteristics and features of the storms themselves and not on the effects. In that regard I have developed the concept of the Seven Ds (7Ds) of Disaster and applied it to hurricanes, a major hazard, but it is also applicable to others that can create disasters. The graphic below displays the concept: DAMAGE Hurricanes cause extensive damage. The damage occurs across all sectors in the natural and built environments. All economic sectors, the public, social and community sectors can suffer damage. The damage can result from a combination of strong winds, heavy rains and floods. Secondary damage may occur from exposure to the elements after the initial hurricane impact. The list of areas where damage occurs is as broad as human everyday living experience. • Coastlines, beaches and reefs • Forests and vegetation • Houses • Commercial buildings • Schools • Office complexes • Airports and ports • Roads • Bridges • Boats — commercial • Vehicles • Personal effects DESTRUCTION It is important to recall that anything that can be damaged by a hurricane can also be destroyed by a hurricane, if the forces are strong enough. One of the greatest challenges in Recovery management after a hurricane is the challenge of replacing what has been totally lost or otherwise destroyed. This is particularly important in relation to critical facilities such as hospitals and airports. It is also pivotal in social recovery if many houses, tertiary institutions and schools are destroyed in a hurricane event. DEATH The graphic starts with DEATH. Hurricanes have been responsible for deaths. It must be stated that most of the deaths caused by hurricanes happen because of inland flooding and storm surge at the coastline. It appears that our member states are becoming increasingly proficient at saving lives during hurricanes. It is important to appreciate that the mere existence of a hazard does not automatically or immediately result in a disaster. There tends to be a progression from the appearance of a hazard to the negative effects that may culminate in an emergency, a crisis or a disaster. Overall vulnerability is a function of the relationship between hazards and level of risk. • Continues on next page

38 Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael • Continued from previous page DISRUPTION A major hurricane impact results in disruption. The disruption relates primarily to services. Services provided by all sectors are usually suspended because the situation must be assessed and decisions taken as to how best to resume services. This often takes time. It sometimes affects essential services. DELAY Delays are common with hurricane impacts. Entities might have been directly damaged but because of disruptions that have taken place in other areas of the economy, then delays arise. A school might not have undergone serious damage but if there is extensive damage to the water system, the school cannot resume. DISORDER Hurricanes can create disorder in several ways. The disorder can result from the destruction, damage, and delay alluded to before. Additionally, disorder can result from actions by small groups of persons engaging in nefarious activities such as looting or larceny. DESPAIR There is an increasing realisation that major hurricanes can create a sense of despair that can affect individuals, families and communities. There is also the realisation that the socio/economic realities of our region indicate that the despair is often greater among women because of their living circumstances. This is an area in which there are increasingly strident calls for preventive and corrective action.

39 W e continue to reiterate our opinion that the public sector is pivotal in any crisis, emergency, or disaster situation that happens in a CARICAD member state. Tropical storms and hurricanes are persistent and perennial hazards in the Caribbean. The devasting events of the 2017 hurricane season illustrate the importance of the entire public sector being well prepared for such events. The CARICAD Secretariat had for many years made the case that effective Disaster Management in the Region was heavily dependent on a public sector that was prepared to play a critical leadership and management role in all phases of the disaster cycle. The effects of hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 made the point forcibly for yet another time. The ongoing volcanic events in St. Vincent and the Grenadines provide another reminder. The public sector includes statutory organisations, executive agencies and government companies. In those cases, the level of independence of the organisations will be greater than in a hierarchical line Ministry reporting relationship. However, the government still maintains administrative control. In the smallest of the member states the public sector may well be the most prominent provider of health, education, emergency shelter, welfare, security, utility, environmental protection and communication services. The level of readiness and response and recovery capacity of the public sector may determine the overall effectiveness of the Recovery effort. The transition to Recovery means an affected state would have gone through much of the trauma and challenge of the Response Phase and would then be moving to “return to normal” as far as possible. The commitment to returning to normal carries with it the understanding that the public sector will also be attempting to return to normal. “Normal” in a post-hurricane situation will be more aspirational than actual for many months. Public sector managers should recognise that despite the dramatic negative Photo by Rojé Sealy effects of disasters that there is a potential for the positive. Disasters create an opportunity not only to rebuild and replace but to change and improve (Transform). This suggests that there will be a need for clarity of vision, knowledge, skills and a commitment to consistent determined action to make the changes that will lead to greater resilience and sustainability. The ‘R” Framework for Recovery that we provide here is intended to help public sector managers establish clear priorities for post-hurricane Recovery. • Continues on next page

40 KEY ACTION AREAS TASKS AND ACTIVITIES REPAIR REPLACE REDUCE RE-DEVELOP RE-DEPLOY REMOVE REGAIN RETAIN • Schools • Health facilities • Other government buildings • Coastal defences • Docks and ancillary facilities • Infrastructure damaged beyond repair • Emergency Supplies • Equipment • Outmoded legislation • Vulnerability to storms, hurricanes and their associated negative effects • Vulnerability to the effects of climate change • Community-level Disaster Management structures and procedures • Hazard-resistant shelters • Search and rescue capacity • Emergency communications arrangements • Emergency water supplies • Early warning systems • Emergency warehouse arrangements • Debris removal systems • Procedures for continuity of Government • Procedures for protecting cultural and recreational facilities • Retrofit selected buildings • Critical personnel to focus on the Management of Recovery • Financial resources to meet the costs of Recovery Projects and programmes • Human-caused hazards that can increase vulnerability and the negative effects of Climate Change • A national approach to environmental protection, vulnerability reduction and Climate Change Adaptation • Needs-based, direct, welfare and housing assistance programmes • A Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) approach to vulnerability reduction • Up-to-date strategy for all phases of the Disaster Cycle • Systems and procedures for effective mass communication and information dissemination • Effective vector and rodent control systems • Strategic partnerships with the non-state sectors – private and voluntary • Pre- and post-event procedures for working with local, regional and international agencies • Gender-sensitive approaches to Recovery • A strong-focus on psychosocial issues during Recovery • Up-to-date comprehensive disaster legislation

41  That there is an average of nine hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic each year  The 2020 hurricane season is the first in which there have been three named storms by June 2  The Atlantic Basin includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico  At least one hurricane has appeared in each month of the year in the Atlantic  September is considered the peak month for Atlantic hurricanes  Several hurricanes have occurred on December 25 (Christmas Day) in the Caribbean in historic times  A storm is not classified as a hurricane until the sustained winds are at least 74 miles per hour  Hurricane Irma in 2017 had sustained wind speeds of at least 185 per hour  Hurricanes are downgraded to tropical storm status if the sustained winds drop below 74 miles per hour  Barbados is the most easterly of the islands in the Caribbean chain  Belize is not a Caribbean island, but it is also subject to the threat of hurricanes  Hurricanes can do extensive damage through heavy (torrential) rainfall even if the winds are of minimal hurricane strength. It has been reported that a hurricane once drenched Texas with 23 inches of rain in 24 hours  A hurricane may be as much as six hundred (600) miles in diameter  The winds in a hurricane spin in an anticlockwise manner  A Knot is a measure of speed. It is one nautical mile per hour. It is slightly longer that a statute mile. You can convert Knots per hour to miles per hour by multiplying the figure by 1.15 • Antigua & Barbuda Meteorological Services • Bahamas Department of Meteorology • Barbados Weather • Bridgetown, Barbados - Weather Forecasts | Maps | News - Yahoo Weather • National Meteorological Service of Belize • CDEMA • Department of Emergency Management (DEM) Barbados • Grenada Meteorological Service – The official Grenada Meteorological Service website (weather.gd) • Meteorological Service of Jamaica • Saint Lucia Meteorological Services • Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service • NATIONAL Hurricane Centre • Weather Channel • Weather Underground • World Meteorological Organization

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44 C ARICAD encourages you to become familiar with the specific terms that are used in official circles in relation to tropical storms and hurricanes. The more familiar you are with the meanings of the terms, the more confident you will be with your own Preparedness and the more likely you will be to help others to prepare. The following are among those terms: SOURCE – National Hurricane Centre – USA Advisory: Official information issued by tropical cyclone warning centres describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and precautions that should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe: (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones. They are usually issued every six hours. Special advisories are issued when there is a significant change in storm-related weather conditions. Centre (Center): Generally speaking, the vertical axis of a tropical cyclone, usually defined by the location of minimum wind or minimum pressure. The cyclone centre position can vary with altitude. Cyclone: An atmospheric closed circulation rotating counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Eye: The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the centre of a severe tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud. Eyewall/Wall Cloud: An organised band or ring of cumulonimbus clouds that surround the eye, or light-wind canter of a tropical cyclone. Eyewall and wall cloud are used synonymously. Gale Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 kit (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 47 knots (54 mph or 87 km/hr) inclusive, either predicted or occurring and not directly associated with tropical cyclones. High Wind Warning: A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 knots (40 mph or 64 km/ hr) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 knots (58 mph or 93 km/hr) or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land. Hurricane/Typhoon: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline. Hurricane Season: The portion of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes. The hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico runs from June 1 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin runs from May 15 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin runs from June 1 to November 30. • Continues on next page

45 • Continued from previous page Hurricane Warning: A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force. Hurricane Watch: An announcement for specific coastal areas that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Indirect Hit: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least four feet above normal. Landfall: The intersection of the surface centre of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the centre, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Major Hurricane: A hurricane that is classified as Category 3 or higher. Storm Surge: An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide. Storm Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 knots t (55 mph or 88 km/hr) or greater, predicted or occurring, not directly associated with tropical cyclones. Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 knots (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less. Tropical Disturbance: A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organised convection — generally 100 to 300 nautical miles in diameter — originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field. Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 knots (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 knots (73 mph or 118 km/hr). Tropical Storm Warning: A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less. Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. Tropical Wave: A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the tradewind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere.

46 LIST OF NATIONAL DISASTER COORDINATORS OF THE CDEMA PARTICIPATING STATES of April 2024, Provided to CARICAD by CDEMA • Continues on next page

47 Coastal Protection in Road Town Tortola BVI – very important to reduce damage to critical infrastructur e by storm surges in hurricanes. (Photo by Frankie Michael) • Continued from previous page • Continues on next page

48 • Continued from previous page • Continues on next page

49 • Continued from previous page Last updated: 16 April 2024 by Isoke Burnett

50 A mini dam (pond) alongside the narrow-gauge locomotive (train) line, St. Nicholas Abbey, St. Peter, Barbados. (Photo by Frankie Michael) DISCLAIMER FOR HORIZON HURRICANE EDITION The information provided in this newsletter is set in the context of CARICAD’S Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with CDEMA. The MOU was signed in 2016. It is stated in the Rationale that both CARICAD and CDEMA have the ultimate aim of facilitating and supporting sustainable development and on improving capacity within member states. The two institutions also agreed to continue joint efforts to mainstream Disaster Risk Reduction. Therefore, the contents of this newsletter are not intended to replace, duplicate or supplant any information provided by CDEMA or the National Disaster Offices of CARICAD member states. It is intended to reinforce their efforts. THE TEAM The CARICAD Horizon is a regular publication of the Caribbean Centre for Development Administration (CARICAD). The Horizon has superseded the “Chronicle”. The Editor-in-Chief is CARICAD’s Executive Director, Devon Rowe. The Production Team comprises: Franklyn Michael, Rosemund Warrington, Dr. Lois Parkes, Trudy Waterman, Angela Eversley and Petra Emmanuel. Previous editions can be viewed at: March-April 2024 February 2023 March 2022 December 2021 October 2021 Special Hurricane Edition June 2021 March 2021 October 2020 July-August 2020 Special Hurricane Edition June 2020 Special COVID-19 Edition May 2020 March 2020 December 2019 October 2019 Board Meeting 2019 Special Edition April 2019 December 2018 August 2018 December 2017 July 2017 1st Floor Weymouth Corporate Centre, Roebuck Street, Bridgetown, Barbados Tel: 246-427-8535 Email: caricad@caricad.net Website: www.caricad.net

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