10 Researched and written by Franklyn V. Michael This article is intended to raise awareness of the unfolding combined threat of Climate Change and hurricanes. The public sector must lead efforts to build resilience, not in isolation from other sectors but with effective plans, projects and programmes that will reduce this region’s vulnerability to hazards of all kinds. Storms and hurricanes may be the most memorable and enduring in terms of their effects, but all natural hazards can set back our development by decades as the volcanic events in Montserrat have demonstrated. PLANNING CONTEXT T he earth’s climate is changing. Climate Change is real. Global warming is taking place right now. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says: The combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.11 degrees F (0.0 6 degrees C) per decade since 1850 or about 2 degrees F in total. The rate of warming since 1982 is more than three times as fast, 0.36 degrees F (0. 20 degrees C) per decade. The Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change inter alia, has concluded that: Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1 degrees C above 1850 – 1900 in 2011-2020. Last year 2023, was the warmest year on record. The global mean temperature from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record for that period. The year-to-date 2024, has been warmer than 2023. The air over the earth is warmer. Warmer air can hold more moisture. More moisture in storm and hurricane systems, means heavier rain. Heavier rain greatly increases the chances of floods in stormaffected areas. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON STORMS There is a growing consensus of scientific opinion that tropical storms and hurricanes could become stronger and more destructive because of Climate Change. Remember that a storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach 74 miles per hour (mph). The perspective that is emerging, is that Climate Change may not necessarily make storms appear more frequently, but it will probably make them stronger when they do appear. Sea-level rise is a component of global Climate Change. Some experts estimate that global sea level has risen by six inches since 1900. The higher the rise in sea level, the greater will be the storm surge impact on low-lying islands and flat coastal areas during storm impacts. We must bear in mind that in storms and hurricanes, 90 per cent of direct deaths are attributed to the impact of water, especially storm surge and flooding. There are reports that the frequency of major hurricanes is now three times greater than it was in 1980. Major hurricanes are those rated in categories 3 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Those storms have sustained winds greater than 111 mph and storm surge greater that nine feet above normal tide levels. The greater frequency of major hurricanes dramatically increases the likelihood of severe negative effects. Scientists have concluded that one likely consequence of Climate Change is the rapid intensification of storms to hurricane strength. • Continues on next page Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD
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