21 • Continued from previous page (the average from 1880–2020 is 47%). CONCLUDING THOUGHTS There are several takeaways for all of us. These include the following: • There was general agreement among scientists in April that the 2024 season will be a highly active one. • The CSU did not change its forecast in any major way from April to June. The forecast remains unchanged for an exceptionally active hurricane season. • There will be less windshear in the Caribbean Sea and Western Atlantic Ocean because 2024 peak hurricane season will occur under La Niña conditions. Many more named storms are likely to remain active instead of being subject to wind shear as an El Niño year. • More storms might pass through our chain of islands this year than the long-term average suggests. The CSU June forecast suggests that the probability of a major hurricane passing through the Caribbean Island-chain is 66% • More storms are likely to develop in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in comparison to last year. • The Caribbean Region remains very vulnerable to the threat of storms and hurricanes, and this may be at a higher level of probability in 2024. • Climate Change may be making the Caribbean more vulnerable now than before. • We must appreciate that proper preparation makes us less vulnerable. • Although the CSU forecasts are widely acknowledged as realistic and reliable, those forecasts cannot predict the likely level of damage in any given hurricane impact zone in the Caribbean. CARICAD implores all our readers who reside in the Caribbean to take responsibility for preparing yourself, your family and your home for what may be a hectic and potentially devasting hurricane season one again. This newsletter is part of CARICAD’s efforts to help you. Note: Seasonal forecasts are updated during the season. Grenada 2004 Photo by Frankie Michael
22 Publizr Home