California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics July 2018
California, July 2018 Sales: 406,920 Units, -1.4% YTD, -3.4% YTY Sales Declined for the 3rd Consecutive Month 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 - Jul-17: 421,920 Jul-18: 406,920 *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Home Sales Continued to Decline for the 3rd Month Year-over-Year % Chg 10% 15% 20% 25% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
Bay Area Sales Up in Five of the Last Six Months Bay Area 10% 20% 30% -30% -20% -10% 0% 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized YoY % chg.
Southern California Home Sales Bounced Back in July YoY % chg. 10% 20% 30% 40% -30% -20% -10% 0% So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Virtually Unchanged from Last Year YoY % chg. 10% 20% 30% -30% -20% -10% 0% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales Declined in Every Segment under $500k July 2018 (Year-to-Year) 10% 15% 20% 25% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 19.0% 13.7% 5.3% 5.7% -3.5% -8.7% -21.3% -1.2%
California, July 2018: $591,460, -1.9% MTM, +7.6% YTY CA Median Price Dipped Slightly after Setting a New Record High $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $P:May-07 $594,530 Jul-18: Jul-17: $549,470 $591,460 T: Feb-09 $245,230 -59% from peak
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile Year-over-Year Price Growth 10% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 7.1% 7.1% 6.4% 7.2% 6.4% 6.7% 9.3% 7.8% 3.4% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 Percentile 86-90 91-95 96-100
Price Growth Remained Strong for both Homes and Condos 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Condo Single-Family Homes YTY% Chg. in Price
Condo/Townhome Market Set Another New Record High Median Price $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $0 Condo Jul-17: $443,160 Jul-18: $486,330 Median Price Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18
CA Median Price (Existing SFH) Month-to-Month % Chg 10% 15% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
July 2018: $289, Down 0.3% MTM, Up 7.0% YTY Price Per Square Foot Remained Near Record High $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $50 $0 Jul-17: $270 Jul-18: $289 PRICE PER SQ. FT.
July 2018: 99.6%, -0.4% MTM, -0.4% YTY Sales Price -to-List Price Had 1st Decline in 40 Months Jul-17: 100.0% 100% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Jul-18: 99.6% Sales-to-List Price Ratio
Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales Price Tapering Off in the Near Term California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Listing Price Sales Price 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018
Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.0% 100.2% 100.4% 100.6% 100.8% 98.8% 99.0% 99.2% 99.4% 99.6% 99.8% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Percentile Jun-17 Jun-18 Total 100.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.5% 100.0% 100.0%
California, July 2018: 18.0 Days Time on Market Near Record-Low Level 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 DAYS ON MARKET
Median Time on Market by Percentile Median Time on Market 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Percentile Jul-17 Jul-18 Total 25 22 16 18 18 18 18 16 14 15 1717 16 1617 15 18 1515 16
Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.2% Reduced-Price Listings 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 5% 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 Median Reduction Share Reduced 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
July 2017: 3.2 Months; July 2018: 3.3 Months Inventory Index Up from 2017 but Remained Tight 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
Active Listings Had the Highest Growth Rate since at Least Jan 2015 Year-over-Year % Chg 10% 15% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 11.9%
Inventory Index Highest in Millions 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10.5 9.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 4.0 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.7 4.6 Jul-17 Jul-18
Housing Supply Improved across the Board, Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment July 2018 Active Listing 10% 20% 30% -20% -10% 0% 20.0% 14.6% 4.2% 17.5% 14.3% 3.4% 11.9% -17.4%
Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Soften 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley 2.2 3.6 3.1 Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
Active Listings by Month Active Listings by Month 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 0 2017 2018
Active Listings Surged in All Regions Sales Active Listings July 2018 30% 26% 20% 14% 10% 2% 0% -1% -10% San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley 0% 8% Year-to-Year % Chg
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