California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics August 2018
California, August 2018 Sales: 399,600 Units, -2.1% YTD, -6.6% YTY Sales Declined for the 4th Consecutive Month 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 - Aug-17: 427,630 Aug-18: 399,600 *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Home Sales Continued to Decline for the 4th Month Year-over-Year % Chg 10% 15% 20% 25% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
Bay Area Sales Down Two of the Last Three Months Bay Area 10% 20% 30% -30% -20% -10% 0% 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized YoY % chg.
Southern California Home Sales Dipped Again after Slight Increase in July YoY % chg. 10% 20% 30% 40% -30% -20% -10% 0% So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Retreated after Bounce Back YoY % chg. 10% 20% 30% -30% -20% -10% 0% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales Declined in Every Segment under $750k August 2018 (Year-to-Year) 10% 15% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 1.0% -3.7% -7.0% -10.1% -16.5% -25.8% 9.7% 2.6%
California, August 2018: $596,410, +0.8% MTM, +5.5% YTY CA Median Price Bounced Back But Appreciation Slowing Down $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $P:May-07 $594,530 Aug-17: $565,320 Aug-18: $596,410 T: Feb-09 $245,230 -59% from peak
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile Year-over-Year Price Growth 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.8% 5.7% 5.1% 4.3% 5.9% 5.5% 7.5% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 Percentile 86-90 91-95 96-100
Price Growth Moderated for both Homes and Condos 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Condo Single-Family Homes YTY% Chg. in Price
Condo/Townhome Median Price Dipped After Peaking in July $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $0 Condo Aug-17: $446,850 Aug-18: $474,570 Median Price Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18
CA Median Price (Existing SFH) Month-to-Month % Chg 10% 15% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
August 2018: $283, Down 2.1% MTM, Up 5.6% YTY Price Per Square Foot Remained Near Record High $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $50 $0 Aug-17: $268 Aug-18: $283 PRICE PER SQ. FT.
August 2018: 99.0%, -0.6% MTM, -0.5% YTY Sales Price -to-List Price Had Back-toBack Declines Aug-17: 99.5% 100% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Aug-18: 99.0% Sales-to-List Price Ratio
Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales Price Tapering Off in the Near Term California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Listing Price Sales Price 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018
Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.0% 100.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 Percentile Aug-17 Aug-18 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.0% 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
California, Aug 2018: 18.0 Days Time on Market Near Record-Low Level 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 DAYS ON MARKET
Median Time on Market by Percentile Median Time on Market 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Percentile Aug-17 Aug-18 Total 27 25 21 19 17 16 20 18 19 1920 21 20 20 18 17 1718 20 18
Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.9%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3% Reduced-Price Listings 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 5% 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 Median Reduction Share Reduced 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Aug 2017: 2.9 Months; Aug 2018: 3.3 Months Inventory Index Up from 2017 but Remained Tight 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
Active Listings Continued to Increase for the 5th Consecutive Month Year-over-Year % Chg 10% 15% 20% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 17.2%
Inventory Index Highest in Millions Unsold Inventory Index 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 9.7 9.2 5.5 4.8 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.7 3.1 2.6 3.4 3.1 2.62.8 3.63.4 3.63.9 3.3 2.9 Aug-17 Aug-18
Housing Supply Improved across the Board, Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment Aug 2018 Active Listing 10% 20% 30% -20% -10% 0% 27.8% 21.4% 7.7% 4.5% 21.4% 19.8% 17.2% -14.6%
Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Soften 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley 2.3 3.6 3.1 Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
Active Listings by Month Active Listings by Month 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 0 2017 2018
Active Listings Surged in All Regions Sales Active Listings Aug 2018 10% 20% 30% 40% -10% 0% 34% 20% 12% 6% 2% -7% San Francisco Bay Area -6% -8% Southern California Central Valley Central Coast Year-to-Year % Chg
1 Publizr