FUEL ASSURANCE material during extreme winter weather and contribute to reduced operating margins. Fuel-related issues with gas-fired generators impacted reliability and pricing outcomes during MaxGen Capacity Emergencies in January 2014, 2018 and 2019. During these events, MISO deployed every emergency and non-emergency resource available. While fuel issues were not the only driver of these MaxGen events, they were another risk factor associated with the extreme winter weather that led to capacity scarcity. MISO can be capacity sufficient one day and insufficient the next, should a number of often-correlated risks align. The table below shows the number of MWs of gas-forced outages during past winter MaxGens, and the number of MWs attributed to fuel issues based on Generating Availability Data System (GADS) cause codes. MISO has undertaken a number of initiatives to enhance fuel security in the region, including administering an annual, voluntary survey that provides insights into the methods that gas-fired generators use to ensure that their facilities can operate when needed. The survey was first published in 2015 and has response rates of 70-90 percent of the fuel-based generation in MISO. The survey and various internal studies indicate some redundancies for gas-fired generation in MISO (such as back-up fuel capabilities or connections to multiple gas systems). Also evaluated is the growing availability of fuel across the entire region due to the growth of shale gas supply and related improvements in gas pipeline deliverability. MISO has also completed assessments of vulnerability to disruptions of gas supply and pipeline infrastructure and found MISO much less vulnerable compared to some other regions. That said, fuel-related outages are However, past winter MaxGen emergencies have illustrated the difficulty and expense of gas procurement during extreme cold. As a result, MISO has been exploring how to provide gas generators with the certainty and flexibility they need to firm up their fuel supply when MISO expects tight operating margin conditions. This includes the recent implementation of MOM Forecasts. Next Steps • Evaluate how enhancements to MISO's resource accreditation process and markets could mitigate multiple risks that the region faces, including risks related to fuel assurance. • Work with stakeholders and the gas industry to explore firm/flex natural gas pipeline pre-positioning and offerings in a multi-day context Fuel-Related Outage Share During Winer MaxGen Emergencies Winter MaxGen Day 1/6/2014 1/7/2014 1/17/2018 1/18/2018 1/30/2019 1/31/2019 Gas forced outages in GADS 8.2 GW Coded as fuel-related in GADS 4.5 GW 12.0 GW 5.4 GW 7.3 GW 7.8 GW 5.8 GW 3.6 GW 3.7 GW 2.7 GW 6.4 GW 3.0 GW % Fuel Related 56% 45% 49% 47% 47% 46% 12
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