OCTOBER 2019 NEWSLETTER To promote, educate and advocate for the Residential Building & Remodeling Industry; providing resources that benefit industry professionals and consumers in the communities we serve. Our Congressmen gave us great detail on the issues at hand during our Political Party Time event including insight as to why the NGA didn’t come to our territory. Both Congressmen are with us 100% on all industry issues; workforce, housing finance reform, energy codes, mailbox clusters and housing affordability. Updates were also shared on border security, gun control, respect for law enforcement and the 2020 elections. Pictured (left to right): Congressman John Shimkus, HBR President Beth Jacob, Congressman Mike Bost and HBR PAC Chair Steve Macaluso. WHATS INSIDE 201 Upcoming Event Registrations Oct 3 - Social Fiesta Oct 16 - Home Show Exhibitor Luncheon Nov 7 - Tropical Trivia Night Nov 14 - Go Kart & Bowling Event Dec 12 - Christmas Party PWB Members with Mayor Jim Vernier of Shiloh Review of recent Events Political Party Time Par Tee Golf Outing Lunch with Shiloh Mayor Vernier Membership Updates & Incentives Membership Directory Advertising Rates The Bow Tie Economist - What will cause the next Ression Local Workforce Development Annual Sponsorship Registration Page 1
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What Will Cause the Next Ression? The Great Recession of 2008 is firmly in the rearview mirror, we are now enjoying the longest recovery in US history, the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, wage growth is pretty good, inflation is virtually nonexistent, and the stock market is just a few percentage points off its all-time high. Yet, talk of recession is increasingly common. And it’s not surprising, given the weakening global economy, the decline in exports, the soft energy and transportation sectors, the ailing agricultural markets, and of course, the overarching USSino trade/currency/tech war. That said, while the next recession may well not arrive till 2021, it is not entirely clear what will cause it. In general, recessions are caused by one of three things. Often, central banks raise interest rates too much in an effort to slow the economy to reduce late cycle inflationary pressures. In the process, they either raise rates too much or keep them too high for too long, driving the economy into a recession. A second reason we have recessions is due to unforeseen shocks to the economy. It might be a war or a sudden rise in energy or food prices which reduces household spending power and can cause widespread obsolescence of capital equipment because the higher price of energy makes the equipment uneconomical. A third cause, and one that has recently been the culprit is financial excesses (think bubbles) that result from overexuberance on the part of markets that lead to mispricing of assets and finally a financial crisis. The 1973 recession was caused by a quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC. Overnight, oil went from $3/bbl to $12/bbl. Moreover, the supply of oil was severely restricted, which led to gasoline rationing and long lines at gas stations. This caused consumer spending to plummet and factories to close, crushing the economy. The recessions of 1979 and 1982 were deliberately engineered by the Fed and its then chairman, Paul Volker. The only way to squeeze inflation, which was north of 13% at the time, out of the economy was to induce a recession. In 2001, it was the tech bubble, and in 2008 the recession was caused by the housing bubble. But the 1990 recession was different; it had no singular cause. On one hand, it was a result of a commercial real estate bust partly caused by the S&L crisis, which in turn led to a severe drop in construction activity. But there was also a major rise in energy prices, due to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, which hurt consumer confidence and spending. In addition, there was the postCold War drawdown in defense spending which led to a rise in unemployment. While none of these events in isolation would have precipitated a recession, collectively they did. Fortunately, it was short and shallow, but the recovery was slow and jobless. As for what’s to come, I suspect the next recession will be caused by a confluence of factors. The trade war is already hurting GDP growth. Add to that a global slowdown, a decline in energy prices, a weakening transportation sector, feeble manufacturing activity, Brexit and other European problems, largely impotent monetary policy as rates are already very low, and if all this leads to one or two negative monthly job reports which, in turn, leads to weakening consumer confidence and spending, you probably have the beginnings of a recession. Regrettably, getting out of the next recession may take longer than usual because fiscal policy is already a spent force as we are already running historically very large deficits. And that means a much-reduced willingness on the part of Congress to cut taxes and boost spending. The good news, the coming recession is not likely to be very deep as there are no obvious bubbles that must be punctured. And lastly, with a bit of luck, this recovery can keep on going for another few years; it is entirely possible. Page 6
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RENEWING MEMBERS NEW MEMBERS CA Jones, Inc. - 24 years D&F Home Builders - 20 years Eagle Flooring - 6 years Forshaw of Illinois - 13 years Tyler Painting & Drywall - 1 year Aaron’s Concrete Aaron Magdich 5435 Hickory Ridge Rd Pomona, IL 62975 O: (618) 789-0554 magdichaaron@yahoo.com Leadership Council Southwestern Illinois Ronda Sauget 104 Magnolia Dr., Ste B Glen Carbon, IL 62034 O: (618) 692-9745 ronda@leadershipcouncilswil.com Page 11
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5 Ways You’ll Have Better Luck Recruiting Gen Z into the Trades By Josh Miller, XYZ University We are witnessing one of the biggest shifts in human capital in history. This has forced companies and collective industries to completely regroup and reevaluate strategy on how to recruit, retain, and, perhaps most importantly, engage the next generation of talent. The skilled trades are undoubtedly one of the foremost examples of this crisis, as this recent NPR story noted, and struggles to engage Millennials, since according to XYZ University data, 64% of Millennials said they wouldn’t even consider working in construction if you paid them $100,000 or more. Let’s look at construction. The industry is projected to lose 1.1 million workers to retirement by 2024. The industry has recognized a growing, urgent need for succession planning, workforce development, and engagement among young professionals. One way to combat this trend of retirements and labor shortages is to effectively engage the generation after Gen Y. Generation Z, born 1996 – 2009, is perhaps the best hope to breathe oxygen back into the skilled trades and reverse the trend of labor shortages and declining interest. There is a way to entice Gen Z into entering the skilled trades and it starts with perception. Our most recent Gen Z research findings discovered that 84% of students plan to attend college. This tells us that many in Gen Z have the perception that going to a traditional university is a more stable route and will lead to more success in the long term. To combat this trend, skilled-trades jobs need to be portrayed as a worthy alternative to college that will lead to an enriching and well-paying career. Another finding the paper turned up was the most important thing to Gen Z in a job is salary. We are a very money-driven generation which can be attributed to the fact that we grew up during the recession. Sixty-six percent of us said that we value a job with financial stability over one we enjoy, which is a drastic change from Millennials and shows that we will look to the trades as a career option simply due to the financial opportunity. But, to pique the interest of Gen Z into the trades, it is important to emphasize the ‘high-paying’ aspect of jobs in the trades. We also need to be provided with opportunities for mentorships and paid apprenticeships; many of which were rolled back because of the recession and need to be expanded to suit the young labor market. It’s also important to utilize recruitment strategies to identify young workers as early in our careers as possible. And early no longer means college, but rather high school, and even middle school to some extent. The opportunity to do this is more prevalent than ever due to the growth of STEM programs and the trend of Gen Zs being farther along our career path than previous generations at this stage in our young lives. Take note, XYZ U has found only 3% of Gen Zs say that they haven’t given any thought to their career choice. Another important trait to consider when recruiting Gen Z into the skilled trades is our tendency to become entrepreneurs. In our research, we discovered that 58% of Gen Zs want to start a business someday and that 14% already have. Careers in the trades can offer us a path to reach that goal. After the apprenticeship and skill development period, leadership development and succession planning can begin, while association leadership can offer business development for younger members. Knowing and doing these five things about Generation Z can help attract us into the trades easier. • Change the perception and portray it as a worthy career choice. •Emphasize the ‘high-paying’ salaries available as Zs seek financial security over job enjoyment. •Offer mentorships and apprenticeships. •Introduce and recruit early in primary schooling as students explore career choices. •Highlight the entrepreneurial aspects of the trades. Download “Ready or Not – Here Comes Z”, XYZ University’s latest white paper on Generation Z which analyzes workplace shifts likely to occur and tips on what your organization should be doing to prepare for Gen Zs arrival into the workforce. Page 16
The HB&R has officially formed a WorkForce Committee to inspire people to pursue careers in the skilled trades and raise awareness about the opportunities in the construction industry. If you or an employee is interested in being part of this committee please contact the HB&R office at 618.343.6331 or email tbutler@hbaswil.org What the HB&R will be doing to help build the WorkForce in our industry: • Partner with local proven programs that are in front of parents, teachers and students by creating a presentation for our members to speak at local schools about the benefits our industry offers. • Create a website based outreach for our members to post job openings and for those seeking jobs to post their resume/interest in employment. Page 17
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6100 West Main Street Maryville, IL 62062 Phone: 618-343-6331 E-mail: tbutler@hbaswil.org Web: www.hbrmea.org Page 20
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