July-August 2020 Volume 3, Issue 4 T he Caribbean Centre for Development Administration (CARICAD) is located in Bridgetown, Barbados. CARICAD has been operational since 1980. CARICAD is one of the oldest of the institutions of CARICOM. In that regard we are keenly aware of the outstanding contribution that Professor Owen Arthur made to Barbados and the CARICOM region. Our region will be much the poorer for his untimely passing. We are especially cognisant of and grateful for the leadership he provided with regard to regional integration in general and the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME) in particular. It was his unwavering commitment to regional integration and his passion for the resilient, sustainable, development of our region that created opportunities for CARICAD to contribute to the processes, systems and operational procedures for integration during his tenure as Prime Minister of Barbados and afterwards. We recognise that the people of Barbados of all walks of life will experience a profound sense of loss at the passing of Professor Arthur. His mark on the political, economic, sporting, social and cultural landscape of Barbados will be enduring and immutable. It is leaders like Professor Arthur that motivate our staff at CARICAD to work to achieve our mandate of undergirding the social and economic development of our region. Professor Owen Arthur set a standard of excellence that CARICAD will continue to embrace as we advocate for and provide technical assistance to CARICAD member states on our continuous journey of Public Sector Transformation to build responsive, results-driven and citizen-oriented public services. I take this opportunity on behalf of the Board of Directors and staff of CARICAD to extend our condolences to the immediate family of Professor Arthur, his relatives, friends, colleagues, associates, former constituents, former Cabinet and Parliamentary colleagues and the Government and people of Barbados. May he rest in peace ……………………………………… Devon Rowe Executive Director, CARICAD July 31, 2020 1

Guest Article By Resel Melville T he effects of the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic combined with the ever-present risk of climate-related hazard impacts in the Caribbean, create a context in which volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) are being experienced both at the individual and organisational levels. The critical realisation is that we have been catapulted into a strange new world that was considered to be farther away for some than it was for others – a future in which technology with its potential for facilitating meaningful work, creativity and sustainable production, and efficient delivery of goods and services, is inextricably embedded in productive processes. We have seen rapid deployment of ICTs to track and combat the spread of the Novel Coronavirus, preserve jobs through telework, continue education via remote/online learning to keep persons connected, deliver essential goods and services and drive new services. Conversely, the present situation also highlights the width and depth of the digital divide within and between nations. It has brought into focus persistent problems and vulnerabilities faced by our Caribbean countries stemming from flaws and failings of interdependent national and international political and economic systems. Resel Melville Although many Caribbean governments took unprecedented and immediate decisions to address the social and economic impact of the pandemic, (prioritising the protection of lives and preservation of livelihoods), several suffered political fallout due to slow implementation and inefficient operationalisation. The need for swift action was hampered in some jurisdictions by inflexible bureaucratic structures in some public sector organisations, difficulties in adapting existing processes and procedures or innovating to meet the new or increased demands, insufficient IT capacity and inadequate human and financial resources. In several ways, the pandemic put a spotlight on the persistent gaps between the current state of our public sector organisations and the vision for a “Resilient, 21st Century Public Sector in the Caribbean.” The current ‘VUCA’ world needs ‘resilient’ leaders, persons with the courage and competencies to confront, accept, quickly recover and adapt to the now present ‘future’ Achieving the vision “is all about the right systems, right skills, right leadership and a culture conducive to change.” (Warrington, 2018). The current “VUCA” world needs “resilient” leaders – persons with the courage and competencies to confront, accept, quickly recover and adapt to the now present ‘future’. Drawing on evolving practice and lessons learnt as a project manager for development interventions in the Caribbean, the following are among the specific models, mind-sets, competences and tools which I believe must be adopted and proactively used by leaders and managers, as we transition from “crisis response” into recovery and rapidly progress towards national visions of resilience and sustainable development. A Human-centred Approach The 2019 ILO Centenary Declaration on the Future of Work (FOW) calls on members to take a human-centred approach to the FOW, “one that puts workers’ rights and the needs and aspirations and rights of all people at the heart of economic, social and environmental policies.” The IDB likewise in its recent discussions on the future of work, argues that ICTs are leading the world to “a human-centric economy”.  Continues on next page 2

 Continued from previous page Resilient leaders must firstly accept that this approach by its very nature will require authentic emotional involvement from them. To keep human perspectives in focus throughout every stage of the problem-solving process will mean caring for, empathising and intentionally engaging with those you lead and with those you seek to serve. It also calls for significant self-awareness and self-regulation to cope with and rebound from the challenges, threats and stresses that arise in the process. Resilient leaders attempt to answer Brene Brown’s question in “Dare to lead – Brave work. Tough conversations. Whole hearts,” – “What would it look like to combine courage, connection and meaning with the world of work?” Design Thinking The human-centred approach is also characterised by a repeatable yet flexible design process, consisting of three key phases – Inspiration, Ideation and Implementation. Resilient leaders can choose from a variety of multi-disciplinary techniques and tools based on factors in their specific context, but must on every occasion first seek to empathise or deeply understand the humans involved; then involve them in defining the problem or needs to be resolved and in the brainstorming and idea generation activities. They must also create a safe environment for experimentation and improvisation by their teams, allowing for rapid prototyping and testing of solutions. Ultimately, as summarised by Professor Joseph Giacomin of the Human Centred Design Institute at Brunel University, “disruptive innovation is as natural an outcome of human centred design as is incremental innovation.” ‘Disruptive innovation is as natural an outcome of human centred design as is incremental innovation’ - Professor Joseph Giacomin An Agile Mind-set An agile mindset is the set of attitudes supporting an agile working environment. These include respect, collaboration, improvement and learning cycles, pride in ownership, focus on delivering value, and the ability to adapt to change. This mindset is necessary to cultivate high-performing teams, who in turn deliver amazing value for their customers. (Susan McIntosh) The agile mind-set is part of the very DNA of this “Fourth Industrial Revolution” and is fully synergistic with the human-centred approach to the future of work. The pandemic jolted Caribbean governments and public sector organisations into taking actions to obtain results that are consistent with the core values of the Agile Approach, especially privileging people and interactions over processes and tools; quick delivery of value and functionality; and responding to change over following an immutable plan. Resilient leaders and managers must take the epiphanies and lessons learnt from this experience and continue to courageously use Agile principles and methodologies to influence faster and longer-term changes in organisational structures, policies, processes and culture for sustainable, high performance. TRANSFORMATION TO A RESILIENT LEADERSHIP CULTURE The resurgence in use and popularity of the term “Resilient Leadership” might seem to herald the ascension of yet another leadership model to the apex of thought, but close examination of recent literature on the topic, shows that it embraces all of the attributes of Transformational Leadership – Qualities such as strategic thinking, emotional intelligence, adaptation and change orientation, learning and performance orientation, and collective leadership…(Kwasi Dartey-Baah, 2015)  Continues on next page 3

 Continued from previous page However, it is the current environment (events and effects) which has placed intense focus on “resilience” or the “capacity to meet adversity, setbacks and traumas and recover from them”, as the distinguishing attributes of organisations that survive and of the leaders needed in these times. In simple terms, a resilient leader is really a transformational leader with an evolved and expanded toolkit of emotional and intellectual skills and competences that enables her/him to treat in new and dynamic (Agile) ways, with the transactional aspects for meaningful change in this “volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous” environment. ‘Transactional aspects’ refers to the responsibility such leaders have for creating frameworks, policies and procedures to ensure that action is taken to achieve impactful results. Resilient organisations and those who lead them, focus on results which meet the needs or develop the potential of people (human centred), and are flexible in how they organise and use their resources to achieve those ends. That “flexibility” requires conscious and informed changes to move public sector organisations away from the highly-centralised, hierarchical organisational structures that are typical across the region, to ones that favour multi-disciplinary, collaboration and engagement with internal and external stakeholders. These changes must remove the ‘work in silos’, and foster the intra- and inter-institutional communication and exchange of information that leads to the generation of innovative and ground-breaking ideas for solutions. The vestiges of “command and control” mind-sets and “blame and shame” attitudes that rely on imposing authority to drive work must also be replaced by conscious cultivation of trust, using influence and investment in continuous learning which empowers team members to deliver willingly and to high levels of excellence. To keep up with the pace and types of change, driven by ICTs and changes in the global political economy, public sector organisations need to make these changes quickly. Resilient leaders are the persons who we call on to guide us through “failing fast, failing often and failing forward.” A key suggestion for one practical method to develop more of these leaders is to apply the Agile principle of “regular reflection”- collecting and sharing case studies and scenarios, mentoring and coaching, testimonials and stories of the situations, the failures and successes of persons who are currently responsible for leading at various levels in the public sector. Documenting, reviewing and extracting critical lessons from personal and peer experiences across the region in responding to COVID-19 or in dealing with the impact of hurricanes is a golden opportunity for acquiring knowledge, seeding new ideas and building relationships through networks. Resilient leaders understand the openness and vulnerability leads to learning and growth. In closing, I offer that resilient leaders need to be “brave, bold, daring”, insightful and emotionally intelligent; know the strengths and limitations of their team and themselves, and as much as possible about the complex relationships between people and our current environment which will have impact on their work to bring about solutions; have agile mind-sets – attitudes aligned with values that give primacy to the needs and wellbeing of people; do the emotional and intellectual work to foster collaboration, build relationships, champion learning, creativity and innovation and drive transformative change in their organisations. Resel Melville (PMP, DEA, B.A Hons), is a development project management practitioner with almost two decades of experience in designing and coordinating and mobilising resources for development interventions across the Caribbean Region. She describes herself first and foremost, as a “passionate Caribbean integrationist” and is currently based in Trinidad where she serves as the Project Coordinator for the ILO’s Caribbean Resilience and Child Labour Projects. 4

Guest Article by Kyana Bowen A void. Reduce. Transfer. Assume. These terms are used to describe decisions we make in our daily lives about managing risk, including disaster risk. The impact of natural hazards is not only influenced by their intensity, but also by people’s vulnerability, which is directly related to socio-economic factors influencing exposure and the ability to recover. These factors also include elements of gender inequality. Many Caribbean countries are still in recovery mode from the impacts of environmental hazards, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, which caused more than US$118 billion in damage and losses over the past three years (CDEMA, 2020). Against this backdrop, Caribbean countries and their people, women, men, boys and girls alike are now managing responses to the unprecedented 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), which has been described by the Honourable Mia Mottley, former Chair of CARICOM and Barbados’ Prime Minister, as “the most destabilising event for our countries, probably since World War II,” during a live CNN Interview on 29 April 2020. Kyana Bowen Physical distancing and quarantine measures, curfews, border closures and virtual engagements have become paramount to saving lives and livelihoods as a result of the COVID-19 crisis Physical distancing and quarantine measures, curfews, border closures and virtual engagements have become paramount to saving lives and livelihoods as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. While these restrictions are critical in reducing the spread of COVID-19, they have had a detrimental impact on the Caribbean economy, citizen security and gender equality. Tourism, which contributes to more than 25% of most Caribbean countries’ GDPs has stalled, a significant number of women who are the majority in the informal sector are now unemployed and, a stark increase in violence against women and children has been reported during the lockdown. The extent of the socio-economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has begun to shape the “new normal” for CARICOM Member States. A 1.5% contraction of Gross Domestic Product has already been estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC, 2020). The disruption of international and regional supply distribution chains due to halts in manufacturing plants and business operations in tourism for example, will also result in significant shortages and/or increased cost of goods and materials, and further hits to economies across the Caribbean region. While governments balance this “new normal,” there is also an ‘above-average’ forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which takes place from June 1 to November 30. Two weeks before the official start of the Hurricane Season, Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm for 2020, forced authorities and communities to speed up their prevention and preparedness measures to prepare for impact. In the face of these challenges, cost-effective prevention and preparedness measures are critical. Experience shows that gender-responsive prevention and preparedness leads to more effective local and national response and better management of infectious diseases. To this end, women’s leadership and contributions are critical to curbing infection rates and enabling resilience and recovery.  Continues on next page 5

 Continued from previous page Strengthening Resilience in the Home Women’s essential role in household disaster preparedness is now even more critical. Data from various regulating bodies around the region has revealed that there is high demand for social assistance grants as result of increased unemployment rates caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Single-parent households that are headed by single mothers especially, will now also require support for the added expense of hurricane preparedness supplies. Women and their families will need recourses to be able to purchase the recommended food items to withstand a hurricane impact. These must be non-perishable and stockpiled to last for at least a two-week period. Individuals must also prepare and test their Family Disaster Plans, taking into consideration public health safety measures. People may have to follow Government stipulated schedules for when they can leave home, wearing masks as they do so, as seen in The Bahamas and other countries. Apart from the normal supermarket and medication stock ups, they will also have to obtain necessary preparedness items from hardware stores before there is a run on these items and crowding in the stores. Individuals will also need to stock up on cleaning supplies and personal hygiene items to maintain household sanitation and personal care, which are already scarce in supply and/or unreasonably overpriced. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the demands of the “care economy” (paid and unpaid care and domestic work) have increased. Schools are physically closed, and parents are expected to work and support their children through online learning. These demands will continue and extend into the Hurricane Season. It is important for men to share the responsibilities of care and domestic work. In addition to the conflation of formal work and unpaid care work that families are experiencing, especially single mothers and fathers, one devastating weather event can exacerbate the ability of parents to provide care and resources for their children. Since most students are now enrolled in virtual classrooms, any one hurricane can result in the disruption of electricity and/or telecommunication services such as internet, which would also affect parents’ ability to work remotely. Therefore, Family Preparedness Kits should include not only important documents such as passports and immunisation cards, but also educational material (secured in plastic) to allow for the continuation of learning and active engagement of children. Schools are physically closed, and parents are expected to work and support their children through online learning. These demands will continue and extend into the Hurricane Season Strengthening Resilience in Communities At the community level, gender-responsive early warning and early action are critical and can strongly contribute to enhanced community resilience and speedier recovery processes. Women play an important role as first responders and essential service workers in communities across the Caribbean region by engaging effectively in local response and recovery efforts. To support women’s local agency for disaster resilience and in an attempt to support communities in boosting resilience, the UN Women Multi Country Office – Caribbean (UN Women MCO) has trained numerous community disaster preparedness and response focal points/officials on gender-responsive prevention, preparedness and response over the past years. The UN Women MCO has also contributed to mitigating the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis by rejuvenating women’s small and micro businesses and businesses with high female labor force through engaging tailors to produce hundreds of cloth masks in each of 13 CARICOM countries for victims of gender based violence (GBV).  Continues on next page 6

 Continued from previous page To accelerate economic recovery and build resilience to natural hazards, the UN Women MCO has also ensured that small grants are provided to female-headed households and marginalised workers whose livelihoods were impacted in the agriculture and tourism sectors through the Global Affairs Canada and UK DFID funded, and UNDP led ‘EnGenDER Project’. While non-perishables are critical for food security during an active hurricane season, it is also important that fresh food remains available. In balancing budgets impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, households may be forced to purchase and consume less fresh fruits and vegetables. Often farmers, especially small holder farmers, experience significant wastage and loss of crops during the post-hurricane phase. In the Commonwealth of Dominica, the UN Women MCO supported the creation of a platform for four women farmer groups to advertise their weekly supply of fresh produce, receive direct orders from customers and enabled them to adhere to COVID-19 safe handling guidelines, thereby contributing to the safe provision of fresh food for local communities. The challenging reality faced by many people within communities awaiting return to employment can also be used as an opportunity for them to become official volunteers and enroll in virtual training courses that are being hosted by National Disaster Offices. Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) and Damage and Needs Assessment (DANA) are courses that can be completed online to build community disaster response capacity. Strengthening Resilience as a Nation Within recent times, there has been a drive for active women leadership in senior level disaster risk reduction (DRR) positions across the region. In fact, while there are more women than men working in public functions on DRR in the Caribbean, women’s leadership in senior management positions continues to be underrepresented. This is of particular concern given that studies have demonstrated that women take more risk averse decisions and are for this reason the better disaster risk managers. In addition, to systematically strengthen countries’ disaster resilience and invest limited resources in the most cost-effective manner, the collection of sex, age and disability-disaggregated data is critical so as to implement a multi-hazard focused, gender-responsive prevention and preparedness plan in the face of climate change and the COVID-19 crisis. In May 2020, the CARICOM Regional Statistics Programme revealed that in at least four Caribbean countries there were more confirmed COVID-19 cases for women than men (See Figure 1). However, reports have indicated that more men have died. With increasing availability and analysis of sex-disaggregated data, more targeted support can be provided. To achieve optimal hurricane preparedness, the needs and potential of women, men, girls and boys need to be identified and leveraged. Women and men across all socio-economic parts of society should be meaningfully engaged to ensure a whole-of-society approach. Diversity of perspective and increasing women’s leadership as decision-makers, is better practice and should reap benefits in governance in state as well as private sector development. Figure 1: Confirmed cases by Sex – Selected Countries. Source: CARICOM Regional Statistics Programme – 15 May 2020  Continues on next page 7

 Continued from previous page Moreover, it is imperative that Hurricane Mass Casualty Plans become more gender and COVID-19 responsive. Sector-specific hurricane preparedness plans for 2020, especially in the agriculture and tourism sectors, should be revised and tested to promote gender-responsive resilience. Business recovery and continuity plans, along with the public-private partnerships that are being developed to respond to the COVID-19 impact must also incorporate hurricane preparedness and recovery strategies, which adequately identify and address women’s and men’s needs and potential alike. These plans need to integrate resources and strategies to address the unpaid care work responsibilities that parents currently face and is likely to increase as a result of the hurricane season. The UN Women MCO has developed an Action Brief which entails strategies that can be adapted. Given the small island developing state context, accommodated in shelters. Strengthening Resilience as a Region In addition to the humanitarian benefits, building resilience to multi-faceted hazards would allow the Caribbean region to benefit from economies of scale, as well as create a platform for the sharing of lessons learned on what works for gender-responsive prevention, resilience and recovery. The UN Women MCO’s Memorandum of Understanding with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) for example, indicates the Agency’s commitment to organize regional, gender responsive prevention, preparedness and response to disaster shocks. Apart from the security protocols and guidelines according to ‘COVID-19 Hurricane Shelter Management’ for a pending severe weather threat could pose a significant challenge this year. Apart from the security protocols and guidelines according to specific requirements to prevent gender-based violence, Hurricane Shelter Managers must now institute COVID-19 measures as well. The Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) has developed COVID-19 specific guidelines, and UN Women MCO Caribbean has developed Shelter Guidelines in collaboration with PAHO and the United Nations Populations Fund for GBV Shelters in April 2020. Both guidelines will be instrumental in restructuring ‘COVID-19 Hurricane Shelter Management.’ The UN Women MCO will continue to collaborate to integrate lessons learned from previous hurricane-related experience to support efforts to ensure that families are better specific requirements to prevent gender-based violence, Hurricane Shelter Managers must now institute COVID-19 measures as well It is important for humanitarian and relief efforts to be gender-responsive in order to improve access to emergency funding as well as service delivery. Service delivery should be based on the analysis of sex-disaggregated data to ensure that the needs of vulnerable and marginalised populations are adequately addressed. International, regional and national agendas must all be aligned to boost climate change adaptation and disaster resilience. Strengthening resilience will not only ensure enhanced prevention and preparedness but also enable a swift recovery from all hazards, including hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2020 hurricane season is not just an unprecedented challenge, but it has the potential to become an unprecedentedly successful, gender-responsive disaster management experience in the history of the Caribbean. It is an opportunity to demonstrate lessons learned enhanced by the COVID-19 experience to build back better for women, men, boys and girls alike so as to keep the Caribbean on the path of resilient and sustainable development. This UN Women MCO Caribbean article Gender-Transformative Hurricane Resilience during the COVID-19 Crisis by Kyana Bowen, Programme Officer - Humanitarian, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Resilience. 8

By Rosemund Warrington Assistant Executive Director, HR & ODE Specialist O rganisations comprise individuals with distinct ideas, beliefs, attitudes and perceptions that collectively constitute their values. Values are traits or qualities that represent an individual’s highest priorities and the forces that drive them. According to Mabey et al (1998, p.480), “Values focus on why people behave as they do.” A value system plays an important role in any organisation and provides the guiding principles that are most important to employees regarding the way they work, whether they are experienced employees or new entrants. In a successful workplace environment, work ethics and great workplace values are essential. For students transitioning from the classroom to the workplace, there is always an anticipation of greater freedom as well as a steady source of income. However, for many it is a huge transition from college life to becoming a working professional. For those who have not held a formal job before, they may not be fully prepared for the challenges while transitioning into the world of work. Values form an important part of an individual, and are needed in every sphere of life, particularly so in the public sector, because public officers are a direct representation of these values to the public whom they serve. A Values mindset is at the core of citizencentricity. It is with this in mind that CARICAD developed a generalised Values-based framework to raise awareness of values employers look for in new hires and to encourage good behaviour and habits in the workplace. The framework emerged over years of CARICAD’s staff working directly with public sector organisations to better understand organisational effectiveness and organisation culture. “Your beliefs become your thoughts, Your thoughts become your words, Your words become your actions, Your actions become your habits, Your habits become your values, Your values become your destiny.” ― Gandhi In this current period, the impact of COVID-19 is forcing organisations, as they try to adapt to the new work realities, to reconsider the profile of their workforce far beyond the technical aptitude of employees. There is now a greater focus on the competencies and core values that employees bring to the table. As a result, quite apart from the reality that new graduates will now have to compete with workers who have been laid off, those who will be fortunate to secure employment will need to adjust to an evolving world of work filled with new protocols and requirements for particular competencies. New working professionals will therefore need to adapt not only to policies and procedures, but also patterns of work, employment arrangements and competency requirements related to every step of the employee journey, from recruiting and onboarding through to engagement at work. While new professionals may have a good command of digital, mobile, and social media technologies and communications, there are some softer skills that they may need to learn to survive in the workplace. For new professionals, the chances of getting or keeping the job could be greatly enhanced by having the right values. CARICAD has always been an advocate for values alignment in the workplace. Our collective professional experience has proven that without such alignment, work cultures tend to cultivate stress, undermine engagement and stymie productivity. New professionals as well as supervisors in the public sector must therefore learn how to engineer values alignment in a way that is authentic and sustainable in the post-COVID-19 workplace. CARICAD maintains that in order to create a values-friendly work environment in the public sector, it is critical not only to understand and embrace the level of performance being committed to, but also the level of values transparency that requires commitment.  Continues on next page 9

 Continued from previous page Toward that end, the Values-based ethical framework promulgated by CARICAD provides guidance not only for new professionals in the public service, but also supervisors and senior managers who are responsible for the onboarding of employees. It is broad-based and includes a hierarchy of values and characteristics such as maintaining a sense of integrity at all times; showing respect to others; learning every aspect of a job and doing it to the best of one’s ability; being enthusiastic about one’s work and optimistic about the organisation and its future; committing to continuous learning of new skills, techniques, methods, and/or theories helps keep the organisation at the top of its field; using one’s own sense of moral and ethical behaviour when working with and serving others within the scope of their job; being adaptable and maintaining flexibility in completing tasks in an ever-changing workplace; and having the ability to connect with people. When these values are in alignment, this will help the organisation to achieve its vision and mission, because everyone will be working towards the same goals, with the same intentions and with the same outcomes. CARICAD will be partnering with the University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus to deliver a case-based workshop for third-year students, using the CARICAD framework as the foundation. The expected outcome is that students would become aware of how their values are an important part of creating the future they want to experience. It was originally intended that the workshop would have been held in March 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic made that impossible. Table 1: A Generalised Values-based Framework for Success in the Workplace (CARICAD, 2020)  Continues on next page 10

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By Dario Richards Senior Intern at CARICAD C OVID-19 is novel in its nature, but not in its impact. It is a microcosm of the meta-problems the world was already facing and continues to expose world leaders’ inability to grapple with an increasingly chaotic world. This pandemic has emphasised the need for policies, systems and structures that can carry countries through the most unpredictable, unexpected and disastrous times. In many ways, COVID-19 teaches us potent lessons for effective governance. It is a reminder of the increasing need to govern in a VUCA world. VUCA is an acronym coined by Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus in 1987, which captured their leadership theory and predicted the future of the world as volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. The impact of COVID-19 has magnified these characteristics of VUCA. It has made the world increasingly volatile. Uncertainty is on the rise, as many countries are reeling from the damage to their economies, and as governments wrestle with the challenge of saving both lives and economies. The world is now more complex than ever. We are living in a constant state of ambiguity, as we struggle to answer the question, “What does all of this really mean for the future?” Effective governance demands a response that acknowledges a VUCA world and the role COVID-19 plays. A cursory observation of the countries that have successfully navigated the first wave of COVID-19, reinforces the importance of good governance to navigating this pandemic and our VUCA world. Therefore, COVID-19 continues to expose the strengths and weaknesses of our governments. It many ways, it has become a teacher of the best systems and structures that should shape the way we govern in the future. So what major governance lessons can we learn from the countries which have done well so far? First, COVID has magnified the importance of a whole of government and sector approach to effective governance. We saw that countries that navigated well did not simply delegate the responsibility of managing COVID-19 to a single ministry or team. Even though special teams provide oversight, the fight required every ministry, sector and citizen to be actively involved. Second, we saw the great need for competence-based leadership. Countries that navigated well, empowered their experts in the medical field to find solutions and leaders listened to the experts. Third, there was special emphasis placed on results. During the COVID-19 crisis good rhetoric was not enough – tangible, clear results, limiting the spread of COVID-related cases and deaths by COVID is what mattered most. Fourth, in those successful countries, we saw a citizen-centered approach. These countries placed the wellbeing of their people – not their party or agenda – as the ultimate priority. A whole of government and sector approach, competency based leadership, results driven work and a citizen-centered approach are qualities that have led to a successful navigation of COVID-19 thus far. These four qualities are also critical for successful navigation of the VUCA world in which we live. National leaders should not abandon these principles post-COVID, but should adjust their approach to governance to ensure future success in an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous VUCA-world. 12

By Franklyn Michael EDITOR’S NOTE: The people of Monserrat commemorated 25 years since the onset of volcanic activities in July 1995 by implementing a week of activities. The events took place during the week of July 12th to 18th, 2020. The events for the week included a national day of reflection which was held on Wednesday, July 15th, a public holiday. CARICAD’S Programme Specialist Franklyn Michael was Director of the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) in Montserrat and Permanent Secretary of the Emergency Department from 1995 to 1999. Montserrat was then and remains a CARICAD member state. S igns of volcanic activity first occurred during the afternoon and evening of Tuesday, July 18th, 1995 in Montserrat. The signs included loud rumbling noises, strong emissions of sulphurous gases and a light fall of volcanic ash in the southern districts of the small island. The Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) was immediately activated. The relevant high-level consultations took place and the Seismic Research Unit (SRU) in Trinidad was contacted. A scientist from the SRU arrived in Montserrat early on Wednesday, July 19th. Visual inspection of the Soufriere Hills (long known as a volcanic area) revealed the appearance of a volcanic vent. The vent incessantly emitted billows of vigorous white steam. That pattern of volcanic activity continued until July 28th when a second vent was discovered. A decision was taken to relocate villagers from the Eastern flanks of the volcano. Activity remained limited to earthquakes, gas emissions and light ashfalls. Monday, August 21st was marked by an unusually heavy ashfall which blanketed the capital town of Plymouth and its environs. The in situ team of scientists recommended the relocation of all residents south of Belham River, to areas north of that line. Subsequently, several smaller vents opened in the same general vicinity of the original vent. The Safe Zone and Evacuated Zones were established to control residential and commercial activity. The dissemination of information via the local radio station, Radio Montserrat, was greatly expanded. Periodic evacuations manged by the EOC, the  Continues on next page 13 A pyroclastic flow on the eastern flanks of the volcano. Royal Montserrat Police and the Defence Force became the pattern because of phreatic (steam, ash and gases) eruptions until massive explosive eruptions culminated in the permanent evacuation of the capital town of Plymouth, and villages in the east, south and central corridor of the island. At one point in time there were more than 1,400 people in Emergency Shelters. There was a frightening eruption on September 17th, 1996. Ironically that was the same date on which there had been a fatal, international, commercial aeroplane crash in the 1960’s and the same date on which Montserrat had been devastated by Hurricane Hugo in 1989. One particularly massive eruption on June 25, 1997 resulted in the deaths of 19 people who were caught in the Evacuated Zones when the eruption took place. That date has been publicly marked since the tragedy. The people of Montserrat had no time to prepare for the initial onset of volcanic events. The disaster challenged the local response capacity and available resources. There was no collective memory or written record of a previous eruptive event in Montserrat.

 Continued from previous page There were historical records of several earthquake swarms that did not lead to the extrusion of material. Those swarms had taken place in 30-year intervals from 1900 until 1966. The events that started in 1995 continued for the next 10 years and thus in many ways became an unfolding Recovery challenge for the people of Montserrat. The island became dependent on budgetary support from the United Kingdom Government. Assistance has also been provided by other partners, notably, CARICOM member states. Prior to the onset of volcanic activity, Montserrat was justifiably known as “The Emerald Isle”. There were verdant hills and mountains along a central ridge which extended along the island’s long axis – north to south. The island was deeply incised by numerous seasonal stream beds known locally as ghauts (pronounced guts). The variations in elevation (up to 3,000 feet) produced an unusual variety of flora and fauna. It ranged from patches of scrub to lush tropical forests. There was agouti, mountain chicken, iguana and the Monserrat Oriole bird species among the fauna. There were magnificent vistas from most homes. The coastal zone is marked by precipitous depths descending from black-sand beaches. There are few coral reefs. Montserratians had achieved and maintained a relatively high standard of living, despite the small size of the island (11 miles by 7 miles at the longest and widest). The GDP per capita was noticeably high. The island was 39 square miles in area at the time of the eruption. Today, the permanently occupied portion is about 15 square miles. Much of what was the more verdant and productive agriculture and forests areas now in the Exclusion Zone. Ironically, that same section of the island had housed almost all the crucial, economic, commercial and social infrastructure on the island including the hospital, the seaport, radio stations and many schools. More than 70 per cent of the people of Montserrat resided in their own homes in July 1995. Electricity and water supplies were reliable.  Continues on next page People of Salem Village under the shadow of an ash cloud. 14

 Continued from previous page The standard of road maintenance was very high. Telecommunications were as modern as any other Caribbean territory when the volcano became active. When the eruption started, the population was 10,500. It was estimated to have fallen to 2,500 at the end of 1997. Today the estimate is 5,000. There has been a significant influx of persons from Jamaica, Guyana, The Dominican Republic and Haiti. Despite its non-independent status, Montserrat enjoyed and still enjoys a high degree of autonomy. It is a full member of both CARICOM and the OECS unlike the other Overseas Territories in the region. It is served by a wide variety of regional agencies, including CARICAD. Its local development strategy has remained fundamentally within the control of the locally elected government. A tradition of democratically conducted elections and peaceful transitions of government have marked its political landscape during the last 50 years. St. George’s Anglican Church Harris Village – destroyed by an explosive event. The people of Montserrat had enjoyed a worldwide reputation for hospitality and friendliness. It was a reputation that was earned and fiercely defended. The island was also developing a reputation for excellence in certain performing arts, notably, music and singing, in which it had at least one celebrated, globally recognised recording star, the Mighty Arrow of “Hot, Hot, Hot” fame. The protracted, visible, perceptible volcanic events continued for 10 years and had many negative effects, including:  Loss of life (19 people died in a single event)  Injuries – some endured volcanic burns from some incidents  Damage to and destruction of public infrastructure  The capital town and many villages were effectively buried beyond recognition or occupancy  The original airport for commercial flights was put out of use  Widespread destruction of homes and personal property  Damage to and destruction of subsistence and cash crops  Extensive damage to natural forests  Disruption of productive capacity in manufacturing  Disruption and decimation of social activities, sporting and cultural events  Loss of livelihoods  Disruption of essential services  Damage to and disruption of government systems  Extensive economic losses  Sociological, emotional and psychological impacts  Continues on next page 15

 Continued from previous page The economic and fiscal environment was marked by many negative occurrences. These included but were not limited to:  A dramatic fall-off in government revenue  A significant increase in government expenditure  A sharp decline in national income  Doubling of unemployment within the first two years of the onset of the events  Capital was exported in the form of savings  The need for massive financial investments in new commercial and residential properties in the Safe Zone  Diminution of remittances from overseas  Rapid appreciation of land values in the Safe Zone  Property rentals increasing – home occupancy decreasing  Off-island transport became unreliable – even fickle Life on Montserrat became highly stressful with great anxieties, uncertainties and unknown risks to health in the long run. The bonds, ties, mores and norms of a very close-knit society were subjected to severe strain. Families had to endure unavoidable separation because of migration. Children and the aged were the most vulnerable to the dramatic changes. The ultimate impact of these effects may influence the health and well-being of Montserratians for several generations. There are many young, qualified, capable Montserratians now living overseas. There is a patriotic and vibrant diaspora but the loss of skills and talents has been great. The loss of psychological independence at the individual and national level may prove to be one of the most devastating of the unquantified psychological impacts.  Continues on next page A new volcanic dome appearing in Montserrat in 1996. 16

 Continued from Page 1 However, Montserratians are a demonstrably resilient people. There has been a determined effort to rebuild the island. They have literally and figuratively dusted themselves off from the ash. Their efforts to date are worthy of recognition and commendation. It has been a slow process with the island remaining dependent on budgetary support from the United Kingdom Government 25 years later for both recurrent and capital budgets. There will remain the need for a consistent programme of Recovery that covers all spheres of life for several years to come. Lessons that CARICAD Member States Can Learn from the Montserrat Experience The Caribbean region can learn many lessons from the Montserrat experience. The incorporation of these lessons in national policy planning and management should prove beneficial to current and future generations. Every country/territory should be prepared for natural as well as man-made hazards and set up appropriate policies, strategies, programmes and management capabilities – especially for high impact hazards and threats such as volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and pandemics. Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) should be embraced as a fundamental development strategy. Small island economies are especially vulnerable to natural disasters. A series of devastating hazard impacts can occur in a short time. Montserrat experienced storms hurricanes and drought along with the volcanic eruption in 1995. The British Virgin Islands and Dominica experienced two major hurricanes in 2017. People are willing to endure great hardships and make remarkable sacrifices for the long-term good of their country but they will demand effective leadership and management from both the political directorate and the public sector. The most effective disaster responses and recovery efforts for large scale disasters require political approaches which are fundamentally equitable and altruistic. It is unlikely that any Caribbean country struck by a similar volcanic disaster could survive economically/financially without a massive and sustained aid programme. Alternatively, the debt burden could be massive and remain a fiscal overhang and drag on development for decades. Small territories with small populations cannot provide the full range of skills required to respond to and recover from that kind of disaster. Proactive preparations should be made to deal with the unquantified but very significant psychological and emotional effects of a major disaster. Mechanisms need to be put in place at national level for the management of aid and technical assistance in the event of a major disaster.  Continues on next page 17 Views from Plymouth looking towards the volcano in July 1995.

By Dr. Lois Parkes Leadership Development and Institutional Strengthening Specialist T he CARICAD Leadership Development Programme (CLDP) is celebrating its first anniversary, and what a year it has been! Over this period, we trained 334 leaders across the Caribbean through the delivery of 16 leadership development programmes and workshops. These included scheduled programmes and workshops such as our Leading Change and Transition and Meetings – a Strategic Tool for Leadership Effectiveness workshops, as well as our Mid-Level and Transformational Leadership Development Programmes. We were also privileged to partner with a number of organisations to deliver customised leadership development programmes and workshops, aligned to their unique learning needs and contexts. Among these partners were the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, Caribbean Court of Justice, eGov Jamaica Limited, the Project for the Advancement of Statistics in the Caribbean (PRASC), Public Services International (Caribbean chapter), Tax Administration Jamaica and Passport, Immigration and Citizenship Agency, Jamaica. CARICAD was pleased to offer 21 scholarships to participants from a range of member countries to complete its Introduction to Leadership virtual programme in June 2020. This programme was aimed at equipping leaders with the skills required to lead during the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We continued to provide ongoing learning opportunities for our communities of practice through the delivery of 10 webinars covering a range of relevant topics, and the dissemination of blogs and other materials to support leaders, particularly in addressing policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, through our website and social media platforms, such as Facebook, WhatsApp, Twitter and LinkedIn. We thank our partners and stakeholders for their continued support. To learn more about our offerings for the rest of 2020 – 2021, see our catalogue at http:// campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render? m=1119959987278&ca=72634f63-b4c7-4553 -95ad-ef0d6fbc1205  Continued from previous page RECOMMENDATIONS The work of CDEMA, should be more closely integrated into national development plans in all member states of CDEMA and CARICAD. CDEMA can draw upon an extensive network of Caribbean nationals who have distinguished themselves in Disaster and Recovery Management. Comprehensive plans should be developed in those member states that could one day contend with volcanic eruptions like the events that occurred in Montserrat. Detailed case studies of the public sector management experiences in Montserrat should be prepared as capacity building reference tools for use in the region. Additionally, short scenarios should be written as tools for capacity building in Leadership and Management programmes in CARICAD/CDEMA member states. The expertise which was developed by public sector officials in Montserrat should be harnessed as a regional resource and used systematically in training in the region. There should be coordinated initiatives among tertiary and development agencies for extensive documentation of the Montserrat experience drawing upon such expertise. Regrettably, several of the personnel involved in the early response in Montserrat are now deceased. The pool is dwindling. This course of action should begin promptly. 18

The CARICAD Horizon is a regular publication of the Caribbean Centre for Development Administration (CARICAD). The Horizon has superseded the “Chronicle”. The Editor-in-Chief is CARICAD’s Executive Director, Devon Rowe. The Production Team comprises: Franklyn Michael, Rosemund Warrington, Dr. Lois Parkes, Trudy Waterman and Angela Eversley. Previous editions can be viewed at: Special Hurricane Edition June 2020: https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon---hurricane-june-2020-final Special COVID-19 Edition May 2020: https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon---covid-may-2020-final March 2020: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ horizon-march-2020-final December 2019: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ horizon-dec-2019-final October 2019: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ horizon-oct-2019-final Board Meeting 2019 Special Edition: https:/ / publizr.com/ car…/caricad-august-2019-special-edition April 2019: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ caricad-april-2019-newsletter-final December 2018: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ caricad-december-2018-newsletter-hl August 2018: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ caricad-august-2018-newsletter-final December 2017: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ caricad-december2017-newsletter July 2017: https:/ / publizr.com/ caricadsec/ caricad-horizon-july-final The Caribbean Centre for Development Administration, 1st Floor Weymouth Corporate Centre, Roebuck Street, Bridgetown, Barbados Tel: 246-427-8535 Fax: 246-436-1709 Email: caricad@caricad.net Website: www.caricad.net 19

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