22 • Continued from previous page Some of you might ask but what is the great value of forecasts anyway? You might say further that forecasts cannot stop hurricanes or identify with certainty before landfall where exactly they will strike. In the academic world the forecasts are of great value for continued research. The more accurate the forecasts become, the stronger the scientific evidence will be of causation or correlation between climate variables and the creation and behaviour of storms and hurricanes. This may mean that at some time in the future there will be great certainty about which countries or territories will be under direct threat and which will not. This will greatly reduce the number of people that may have to be evacuated (larger countries) and the services that may have to be interrupted or suspended. There could very well be potential for savings in both insurance and premiums and reinsurance costs for a region like the Caribbean. Families may not have to invest as much in consumables for preparedness. In the Disaster Management sphere, forecasts are valuable for policy, mitigation, planning, and resource management. The more accurate the forecast the greater the certainty of what will be needed in any year for both effective Disaster Preparedness and Response. The seasonal forecast is a long range forecast. In terms of the short-term forecasts, NOAA has taken a decision to station a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Barbados in 2023. The plan is for the Hunter to be in Barbados at least five days ahead of the appearance of a storm in the Caribbean. Barbados is the most easterly of Caribbean countries. In that regard, on April 22nd, 2023, the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC) quoted the Prime Minister of Barbados the Honourable Mia Mottley as saying: “We are happy… and we have been agitating for some time that we need to have the positioning of the Hurricane Hunter at an earlier point. We are at 59 degrees and I am told that there has already been a decision on the part of NOAA to be able to pre-position it that will benefit us by the additional day to two days of early warning, depending on the pace and the movement of the system,” Prime Minister Mia Mottley told a two-day conference on climate services. Let us all remember that whether the forecast is for a normal season or a below-normal season, the level of hurricane preparedness at country, community, family and individual level must be at its highest level. Remember, the probability that at least one named storm will strike somewhere in the Caribbean is virtually 50%. Just one storm can cause death, damage, destruction, disruption, delay, disorder, despair. CARICAD reminds you to be aware and prepare. Note: Seasonal forecasts are updated during the season.
23 Publizr Home