0

1 July, 2022 Volume 6, Issue 2 Some of the damage in Dominica from Hurricane Maria. (Photo by Yuri Jones)

2 V ulnerability in our Caribbean region takes many forms. Devon Rowe, CARICAD will be vociferous, strident and persistent in our enduring call for our vulnerability to be put at the core of Development Planning. Our Sustainable Development will be jeopardised unless we make Resilience a foundation plank and a pillar of our long-term national and regional planning efforts. Executive Director CARICAD Satellite view of Hurricane Irma in 2017. (NOAA image) In our small states the public sector is unquestionably the engine of post-event recovery in Disaster Management. During the last 10 years the region has been hammered by hazards and negative events that appeared in many forms. It is the public sector that must continue to work effectively in such circumstances for the private and non-government sectors to have a hope of fulfilling their intentions and ambitions. That is why CARICAD continues to work closely with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) to develop capacity in Planning, Human Resources Management, Leadership, General Management and Teamwork in particular for the public sector in CARICOM member states. This 2022 version of the Special Hurricane Edition of our Horizon newsletter is designed to continue to create awareness and share knowledge as we prepare for the peak of the 2022 Hurricane Season. We emphasise the public sector but we are inclusive of all. We invite you to embrace the CARICAD conceptual framework and mantra of Prepare, Perform and Transform for the management of crises and disasters. This special edition reinforces some of our well established perspectives but also presents you with new information for reflection and action. We are grateful to our partners, CDEMA, and the Department of Disaster Management (DEM) in Barbados for their continued support. We are grateful also to our former Programme Specialist Frankie Michael for his unflinching dedication to the production of this yet another special edition for the 2022 hurricane season. Devon Rowe, Executive Director CARICAD and Editor-in-Chief of the Horizon Newsletter “Natural disasters in the Caribbean are becoming more ferocious and frequent even relative to small states. The recent devastations of Category 5 hurricanes Maria and Irma (both in September 2017) demonstrate how powerful storms can lead to widespread destruction, loss of life, and weaker economic growth prospects. For some disasters, damages well exceed the size of the economy—Dominica, for example, suffered damages amounting to 226 per cent of GDP when it was devastated by hurricane Maria. That means that it would take Dominica's output at least 5 years to recover to pre-hurricane levels. Building Resilience to Natural Disasters in the Caribbean Requires Greater Preparedness.” By Sònia Muñoz and İnci Ötker IMF News: IMF Country focus

3 O ur Caribbean region is one of the most vulnerable in the world to natural hazards. However, we have made emergency shelters and infrastructure our developmental priority. This is ironic because events in recent decades in Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands, Dominica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines have shown us that persons affected by major hazard impacts may end up spending months and even years in emergency shelters (Montserrat volcanic crisis). The time has come for us to adopt a new strategic approach to emergency shelters as a critical ingredient of resilient, sustainable development. I suggest we focus on four specific issues:  Location  Design  Construction  Governance LOCATION We need to be more vigilant with regard to planning for the locations for emergency shelters. There are many countries in our region in which shelters as are labelled as “post-event” facilities. This means we have to wait and see what happens during a hazard impact before they can be occupied as shelters. Shelters in future should be placed in locations in which the risks that could arise from hard impacts such as hurricanes and the potential not only for high winds but sea surge and coastal flooding, inland flooding, earthquakes (liquefaction), bush fires, rockfalls and landslips. We need also to recognise and plan for the prospect of shelters being “cut off” if bridges and roads are washed away or coastal roads are eroded. We need to identify such risks and as far as possible reduce them through better judgements as to precisely where the shelter should be. We clearly will have to plan for an inner circle of immediate risk and a wider outer circle of possible risk. Some of the damage in Dominica from Hurricane Maria. (Photo by Yuri Jones) DESIGN Most of the emergency shelters in the Region are public access buildings such as schools, churches and Community Centres. Did we pay much attention to the design of these buildings even though we could reasonably anticipate that they would be used as shelters from time to time?  Continues on next page By Franklyn Michael Supplementary Associate CARICAD

4  Continued from previous page It is advisable to have detailed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) among the government, private owners and Community-Based Organizations (CBOs) and/or Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) with regard to location, design, management, governance and repair of emergency shelters. The MOUs should be standardised as far as is feasible to promote transparency and fairness. This is particularly important for matters relating to cost and maintenance. For example, a government might agree to meet the costs of construction for the number of bathrooms that could be required in a shelter situation or allow a reduction in the cost of water used routinely at a facility in return for use of the facility when required in an emergency if it is not owned by the state. I suggest that in designing such buildings in the future that we have a clear set of design standards for emergency shelters not only to make them safe but to meet the levels established by the Sphere Project. That will require a focus on matters such as:  Parking areas  Playing areas for children  Technology infrastructure  Access for the differently-abled, ingress, egress and occupancy  Kitchen capacity for mass meal preparation and serving  Laundry facilities and working areas for laundry  Design for showers and toilet areas not only for large numbers but for security, safety and privacy  Space allocations for common area for eating, recreation and sleeping Some of the damage in Dominica from Hurricane Maria. (Photo by Yuri Jones)  Continues on next page

5  Continued from previous page I have long accepted that our Caribbean Region may not be able to design all public access buildings and “just leave them” until required as shelters against the backdrop I have just described. We should consider designing buildings such as gymnasia and sports stadia so that they can be used for emergency shelters instead of having to use schools and churches. My experience leads me to believe that public buildings can be designed in such a way that when required for use as shelters they can be quickly converted to that kind of service with standards guaranteed. In paying attention to design we need to focus on standards, flexibility and adaptability for public buildings. I do not think any of us would say we should design the buildings for best use during emergencies and then wait for an emergency to use them. There are ways in which buildings can be quickly and safely converted internally for emergency shelter use but proper design is critical. This includes considerations for smaller spaces for privacy or larger spaces for access, capacity and convenience. Plans should include guidelines for dealing with both hurricane recovery and the COVID-19 crisis, among other hazards and threats. (Photo by Franklyn Michael) CONSTRUCTION There are standards of construction that must be followed in all CARICAD member states. Some states have comprehensive and detailed Building Codes and related legislation and regulations. However there is wide variation in the levels of enforcement of regulations in particular. We have architectural and engineering expertise in our Region that could help us to enhance harmonisation practices that promote hazard resistance in construction methods. Our people have long experience in coping with hurricanes, earthquakes, floods and even tsunamis. Those lessons of life Some of the damage in Dominica from Hurricane Maria. (Photo by Yuri Jones) should be brought to bear on construction methods for emergency shelters. Note that the Sphere project began in 1997. The Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and other global level NGOs sought to develop and promulgate a set of globally accepted minimal standards for Humanitarian Response. The standards are codified in the Sphere handbooks — Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response — and provide detailed information that can be adapted to our regional circumstances. The 2018 edition of the handbook has an entire chapter devoted to shelters and shelter management. GOVERNANCE We have made great strides over the years in Shelter Management – day-to-day operations of shelters. However, longer-term occupancy of emergency shelters present challenges that do not arise during an overnight or weekend stay. Governance is one of those challenges. I have decided to reflect on a list of questions such as those shown on the next page as a basis for future decision-making and action-taking. I have excluded question marks to improve visual appeal for our readers.  Continues on next page

6  Continued from previous page Key Governance Questions Shelter Governance by ensuring that:  Is there comprehensive legislation in place for both short and long-term occupancy  Does the National Emergency Shelter Policy clearly identify expectations, procedures and processes to deal with dignity, diversity, discipline and gender sensitivity  Are stakeholders’ engagement and involvement included among the priorities for managing shelters  Is there a difference in portfolio responsibility for short and long-term shelters  Is there a Cabinet-approved Board or Committee that has direct oversight for long-term shelters  Are short and long-term shelters overseen by the same personnel  How will mental health matters be addressed at long-term shelters Some of the damage in Dominica from Hurricane Maria. (Photo by Yuri Jones)  How are human and material resources to be sourced and deployed in long-term shelters  How are persons designated as essential for shelter management to be treated in relation to public officers in the long-term  How will “normal” procurement procedures be adjusted to cater to urgency in long-term shelters  What are the policy safeguards against potential conflict of interest among shelter officials – selling products or providing services to shelters  Are there “Good Samaritan” clauses in legislation to protect shelter officials  What are the liability limits under the constitution and relevant laws for government with regard to damage or losses or injuries among shelterees I have deliberately stated these issues in the form of questions not only to stimulate thought and ideas but hopefully to generate the necessary action for implementation where gaps exist. This means that I am hoping that in addition to building capacity in Shelter Management that we will also focus on  A comprehensive Emergency Shelter Policy is developed in every CARICAD member state  Legislation is reviewed for relevance and modernised if necessary  Terms of Reference for a Shelter Oversight Board including terms of service are developed and used  Do policies and procedures treat with the particular needs of senior citizens and persons with special needs  Codes of Conduct in relation to Shelter Governance are developed not only for shelterees but shelter employees and other officials, especially volunteers  Clear processes are promulgated for areas of Shelter Governance that could produce conflict beyond the immediate confines of the shelter such as: complaints, physical abuse, theft, sexual abuse, abuse of alcohol or use of illicit drugs, mediation, redress, restitution END THOUGHT People who require shelter in emergencies are vulnerable physically, emotionally and psychologically. Let us remind ourselves of some of the words found in the Vision of the Sphere project. “People affected…..have the right to prompt, effective and quality humanitarian assistance which enables them to survive crises, rebuild their lives and recover their livelihoods with respect and dignity” If you have questions or comments on this article, send an email to fmichael@caricad.net (Franklyn Michael is a former Programme Specialist at CARICAD who has lived through, worked through and also observed the effects of many major storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean.)

7 (Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA) By Brian Hamacher T he National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an "above-normal" 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with 14-21 named storms expected. Of those named storms, six to 10 are expected to be hurricanes and three to six could be major hurricanes, according to NOAA administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad, who delivered the outlook during a virtual media briefing Tuesday, May 24th, 2022. "It's never too early to prepare for the devastating impacts of hurricanes," Spinrad said. "It's crucial to remember that it only takes one storm to damage your home, neighbourhood and community." Source: https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noaa-predicting-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/2768344/

8 ATLANTIC REGION STORM NAMES T he World Meteorological Organization (WMO) maintains lists of hurricanes for each of the tropical cyclone prone areas of the world. The Atlantic area also includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. This action is in keeping with a convention that was agreed to in 1950 to formally name Atlantic hurricanes. A list was originally kept by the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in the USA. The responsibility passed to the WMO in 1953. The storms and hurricanes are referred to as Tropical Cyclones. The National Hurricane Center (RSMC Miami, FL), is responsible for the Atlantic basin west of 30°W. If a disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm the Center will give the storm a name. In 1953, the United States abandoned a confusing two-year-old plan to name storms by a phonetic alphabet (Alpha, Brovo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, etc.). That year, the weather services began using female names for storms. The practice of naming hurricanes solely after women came to an end in 1978 when men’s and women’s names were included in the Eastern North Pacific storm lists. In 1979, male and female names were included in lists for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The list of names comprises 21 alternating names of men and women. The names of men were not included until 1979. A separate set is used each year beginning with the first name in the set. The list is re-cycled in the sixth year. This means that for example, a list used in 2019 is re-cycled in 2025. The names used in 2022 will be used in 2028 with any required changes. In terms of required changes, the names of hurricanes which prove deadly (loss of life) or costly in terms of damage are retired so they will not be confused with any subsequent storms that could carry the same names. It is also considered as gesture of human sensitivity. Whenever there was a need for more than 21 names in a season, the Greek alphabet was used. In cases in which storms occur in December they are given names from the list for the current season. On the other hand, storms which occur very early in the calendar year are given names from the next season’s list. The letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not included because of the scarcity of names beginning with those letters. If over 21 named tropical cyclones occur in a year, the Greek alphabet was used following the “W” name. However in 2022 a supplementary of names will be used and not the Greek alphabet. For several hundred years, many hurricanes in the West Indies were named after the particular saint’s day on which the hurricane occurred. Ivan R. Tannehill describes in his book Hurricanes the major tropical storms of recorded history and mentions many hurricanes named after saints. For example, there was “Hurricane Santa Ana” which struck Puerto Rico with exceptional violence on July 26, 1825, and “San Felipe” (the first) and “San Felipe” (the second) which hit Puerto Rico on September 13 in both 1876 and 1928.  Continues on next page FOR 2022 Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter Supplemental names: Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlanda Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Viviana Will

9  Continued from previous page The first known meteorologist to assign names to tropical cyclones was Clement Wragge, an Australian meteorologist. Before the end of the 19th Century, he began by using letters of the Greek alphabet, then from Greek and Roman mythology and progressed to the use of feminine names. Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive given names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods. These advantages are especially important in exchanging detailed storm information between hundreds of widely scattered stations, airports, coastal bases, and ships at sea. The use of easily remembered names greatly reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. For example, one hurricane can be moving slowly westward in the Gulf of Mexico, while at exactly the same time another hurricane can be moving rapidly northward along the Atlantic coast. In the past, confusion and false 2023 Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney 2024 Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Francine Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Milton Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sara Tony Valerie William rumours have arisen when storm advisories broadcast from one radio station were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away. The name lists have an international flavour because hurricanes affect other nations and are tracked by the public and weather services of countries other than the United States. Names for these lists agreed upon by the nations involved during international meetings of the World Meteorological Organization. The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it. This is the list of primary Atlantic Hurricane names for 2023-2026: 2025 Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy 2026 Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

10 A globally accepted system that uses latitude and longitude coordinates allows us to locate any place on the earth’s surface. Latitude measures locations on the globe that are north and south of the Equator. The measurements are stated in degrees, minutes and seconds. The highest numerical readings for latitude are ninety degrees north (90°N) and ninety degrees South (90°S). The Equator is zero degrees (0°). The Equator divides maps of the earth into Northern and Southern hemispheres. When lines of latitude are shown on a map, a globe or graphic of the earth they are displayed as parallel with the Equator and are equidistant. One degree of latitude is equivalent to 70 miles. Longitude measures locations east and west of the Prime Meridian. In 1884 it was agreed that the Prime Meridian identified a location in Greenwich, London, England. You should note that the most widely used meridian in more modern times is the IERS Reference Meridian. The International Reference Meridian (IERS) was devised from the Greenwich Meridian but it is slightly different. The difference between both is because of variations between astronomical and geodetic coordinates. Those differences are important in this age of satellite imagery. Lines of longitude are also stated in degrees, minutes and seconds. Longitude is measured in degrees that extend both east and west of the Prime Meridian to a maximum of one hundred and eighty degrees east and west (180°E or °W). The International Date line is at 180 degrees. The Prime Meridian is zero (0°) degrees. It divides maps of the world into the Eastern and the Western hemisphere. On a map, the lines of longitude meet at the North and South Poles. At the Equator one degree of longitude is equivalent to about 70 miles but only at the Equator. That distance becomes smaller and smaller until the longitude lines meet at the Poles on a map or a globe. Lines of longitude are known as meridians and not parallels. It is the intersection of the values for latitude and longitude that give a unique position for a specific location. The locations of storms or hurricanes are given in terms of latitude or longitude for the centre of the system, e.g. seventeen degrees North and sixty degrees West. (17°N 60°W). That information makes it possible to track the movement of the system on a map or follow it on technology-created schematics. When you know the location of your country (a CARICAD member state for example) in latitude and longitude you can get the earliest indication of the proximity of your country to likely effects from the storm. Additionally, you will get a clearer picture by examining the predicted, projected path of the system as given in weather reports. Remember that the centre of the hurricane could be anywhere in the “cone of uncertainty’ and there is about a thirty per cent chance that the system will also travel outside the cone. You must be mindful that a hurricane can be hundreds of miles across and hurricane conditions might extend for a hundred miles or more from the centre.  Continues on next page

11 COUNTRY/TERRITORY LATITUDE IN DEGREES NORTH Anguilla Antigua & Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Belize British Virgin Islands Dominica Grenada Guyana Jamaica Montserrat St. Kitts & Nevis Saint Lucia St. Vincent & the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos Islands 18 17 25 13 17 18 15 12 04 18 16 17 13 12 3. 10 21 LONGITUDE IN DEGREES WEST 63 61 77 59 88 64 61 61 58 77 62 62 60 61 56 61 71  Continued from previous page Suriname is the most southerly, Barbados is the most easterly and Belize is the most westerly. We have prepared the table above for your information and convenience. It shows the latitude and longitude of all CARICAD member states. Remember that the precise location within a multiisland state for a particular island in that state could be slightly different from the figures shown. Further, in geographically large member states such as Guyana, Suriname and Belize the values will be different for different locations within the country. The numbers after the decimal point can vary depending on where exactly the measurement was calculated for the country or territory. We have opted in this edition not to use the decimal point values for the locations. Note that The Bahamas is the most northerly CARICAD member state, In earlier years there was a tradition of identifying a ‘Hurricane Belt’ in the Atlantic Basin. It encompassed the northern part of the Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf of Mexico. It also included Florida and the Florida Keys. There is now a disinclination to consider the Hurricane belt as having statistical certitude. It used to be said that Grenada was outside the Hurricane Belt but that kind of thinking started to change when Grenada was devastated by a major hurricane — Ivan — in 2004. It is worth remembering that in 1955 Hurricane Janet, a Category 5 hurricane, caused widespread damage and several deaths in Barbados and the Grenadines. The Grenadines were considered to be outside the zone of greatest threat.

12 by Franklyn Michael T he principal difference in the categorisation of a Hurricane over a Tropical Storm is the sustained wind speed. A storm has sustained wind speeds that are between 39 and 73 miles per hour (mph). Hurricanes have wind speeds that may range from 74 miles per hour to more than 160 mph. Both systems can have wind gusts that are higher than the sustained winds. In general terms, winds are not the storm/hurricane-generated hazard that cause the greatest fatalities. However, the winds do cause fatalities and extensive damage. It is useful to think of the effects of hurricane winds in two distinct but related categories, direct and indirect effects. Let us consider the effects of hurricane winds. DIRECT EFFECTS OF WIND DAMAGE Hurricane winds can do extensive damage by the sheer physical force of the winds. This happens when trees are uprooted, electrical poles toppled and perimetre fences flattened. The direct effects of wind damage can amount to millions of dollars in each event. In 2017 some of my colleagues and friends in the British Virgin Islands (BVI) described scenes like the following:  Yachts removed from marinas and deposited in main roads  Cars were lifted unto porches  Roofs were deposited in neighbouring front yards  Washers and dryers were removed from verandas and put into the streets  Windows were shattered by the force of the wind alone  Cutlery from one apartment was blown into another In 2004 in Grenada there was a famous story about a house that had “crossed the road” in a coastal village during Hurricane Ivan. Hurricane winds can also damage buildings directly because of the force of pressure differentials. The pressure exerted by the wind one side of a building or on the roof might be greater than on another side or part of the building. In a major hurricane that difference can be so great that in a manner of speaking the building virtually explodes. Buildings that have roof coverings made of materials other than concrete or have a very low pitch (angle) are particularly susceptible to this form of damage. The changes in force and pressure can be particularly marked if the eye of the storm passes over or near a particular location. In Hurricane Hugo in Montserrat in 1989, I can recall that my ears “popped” near the time of the passage of the eye of the storm because of pressure differentials. INDIRECT EFFECTS OF WIND DAMAGE There are indirect effects of hurricanes that can be thought of as a both a companion to and largely a consequence of the direct effects. The force of the wind can topple huge trees. When those trees fall if they fall on a house or vehicle great damage may result. Sadly, there have been cases where people have been killed when trees fell on houses. One of the most dramatic features of a major hurricane is the nature and extent of flying debris. Debris driven by hurricane force winds can do extensive damage. Portions of roofs, tree branches, garbage cans, outdoor furniture and construction debris can become truly lethal missiles on the winds of a major hurricane. One of the ways in which major hurricanes create indirect damage is through the impact of “horizontal rain”. If you have not experienced it, you might find it hard to believe. The force of the winds is enough the send the rain forward parallel with the ground at building level. Most buildings especially houses are designed for normal rain that falls vertically; horizontal rain can cause extensive interior flooding. I attempted to capture the experience poetically in the poem, “Facing the Force” that we published in the 2021 edition.  Continues on next page

13 by Franklyn Michael Verse 1 Growling and howling like a giant beast It beats, it bleats, it roars, it is all around A terrifying sound Thunderous crackling Stabbing, flashes of lightening Howling hiss of horizontal rain Frightening, Gray skyscrapers of sodden clouds Verse 2 The hurricane is here Feels like it’s everywhere Category four Now at my door Anxious and cradled in fear I whisper a marathon prayer Resurrecting faith and embracing hope The crash, a slash it’s gone to ground Verse 3 Invisible damage but audible grief There is as yet no sense of relief A new tomorrow I foresee No electricity No computer, no cell phone, no TV WhatsApp is What’s gone No microwave convenience Three stones or a coal pot Black soot and smoky fare Sardine survival, corned beef and biscuit revival Verse 4 Tomorrow I may see Death, damage, destruction expansively Tomorrow, I will experience delay, disorder and feel despair Category 4 crash landed here We know the rhythm, the cycle and sequence June to November but worse in September Emotionally we embrace our ancestors’ souls You our forebears trod this road Help, help us to carry our load Yes, our Caribbean reality

14  Continued from previous page CREATING RESILIENCE TO HURRICANE WINDS It is important that we accept hurricanes as a part of the reality of Caribbean life that requires human behavioural change to promote higher levels of resilience. Experts in some quarters are predicting that hurricanes might become more powerful in the years ahead. Should that forecast prove to be accurate then we must bear the following in mind: in hurricanes, the wind force increases exponential. This means that in a hurricane, that is 25 mph stronger, the force of the winds will be 73% greater.  Countries should have cohesive policies for Disaster Risk Reduction in relation to all hazards particularly land zoning and physical planning  All our member states should work to create or revise their building codes and ensure that the appropriate resistance requirements for wind damage are included along with provisions for all major hazards  Rigorous standards should be introduced and maintained for construction materials to promote resistance to all hurricane hazards. The standards should be backed up with relevant, modernised, laws and regulations  The training that is formally provided in construction methods should be standardised to ensure the acquisition of skills and techniques related to hazards  The mechanisms that are used for building inspection should be vigorously implemented in all sectors  Continues on next page

15 CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed framed homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Irene of 1999, Katrina of 2005, and several others were Category One hurricanes at landfall in South Florida. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed framed homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894. CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur: Wellbuilt framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017. CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). Catastrophic damage will occur: Well -built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The 1888, 1900, 1919, 1926 Great Miami, 1928 Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach, 1947, Donna of 1960 made landfall in South Florida as Category Four hurricanes. CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher). Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The Keys Hurricane of 1935 and Andrew of 1992 made landfall in South Florida as Category Five hurricanes.

16

17 C ARICAD has recently promulgated two documents dealing with post-hurricane recovery. The first is a model hurricane recovery strategy and the second is a guide for post hurricane recovery for public sector managers. It is hoped that those documents will be embraced as a resource by public officers. The documents were produced because CARICAD wishes to emphasise that when a major hurricane hits a member state, it is the entire public sector that must respond. The framework below is therefore intended as a quick reference for public sector managers in the event that they are required to participate in post-hurricane Recovery. FRAMEWORK FOR PUBLIC SECTOR LEADERS/MANAGERS FOR POST-HURRICANE WORK BE Ready to work in a highly stressful environment Conscious that in 2022, COVID-19 protocols may be more relaxed but caution is advised An example to your staff in terms of commitment to the long hours of demanding work needed for Recovery Committed to urgency allied with effectiveness A source of accurate information about Recovery Be empathetic and very patient with your staff Willing to use flexible structures such as Working groups KNOW How all staff have been impacted How to assign persons best suited to specific tasks How to communicate with staff members that may be under severe psychological stress How to manage change well How to coordinate work with strategic partners How best to create public information related to your work if authorised to do so Implementation matrices Reliable ICT systems and hardware for use for remote work if required Accountability procedures in place for use of vehicles, plant and equipment during Recovery Suitable Personal protective Equipment (PPE) for personnel who might have to perform front-line Recovery tasks in the organisation or provide direct service to the public HAVE Have various means of closely following Recovery activities Regular briefings among staff as Recovery work continues A revised contact list for all staff. Some staff may be staying with relatives and friends or even in shelters Up-to-date contact information for key officials outside of your organisation Hard copies of contact lists as back-ups DO Share accurate weather information throughout the organisation Keep up-to-date with official Recovery information Arrange counselling for staff that could be needed if there is an impact Introduce internal staff welfare programmes. Pay particular attention to Differently-abled staff Plan and manage all meetings well Monitor all Recovery work systematically and regularly Produce and submit progress reports on schedule Review, assess and realign work as circumstances require Evaluate results and write down lessons for the future

18  The public sector has a critical role to play in any crisis, emergency, or disaster situation. Tropical storms and hurricanes are perennial, pernicious hazards in the Caribbean. The events of the 2017 hurricane season in which at least eight of CARICAD’s 17 member states were directly affected by two major hurricanes, illustrate the importance of the public sector being well prepared for such events in future. In the smallest of the member states the public sector may well be the most prominent provider of healthcare, education, security, utility and communication services. The public sector takes the lead in matters of national security and public safety. The public sector also takes the lead in matters of welfare and public assistance. The capacity of the public sector for post-hurricane Response and Recovery may determine the overall effectiveness of the Recovery effort.  CARICAD recently promulgated a Guide for Public Sector Managers for Post-Hurricane Recovery Planning and Management. It is intended as a reference document for senior managers in the public sectors of CARICAD member states. It is also intended as a tool for capacity building for staff at all levels based on CARICAD’s mantra for crises — Prepare, Perform, Transform.  The Guide provides information from the concept of a disaster to the priority actions and activities that are needed to lead a Recovery effort after a hurricane impact. It includes information that stresses the importance of Leadership, Management, Coordination and Teamwork to achieve the agreed priorities. The information was developed after extensive research and drawing on the experience of some of the most knowledgeable disaster managers in the Caribbean region. We have deliberately made the suggestions operational and practical. Many of the practices we advocate can be attested to by our own team based on their experiences.  We hope that public sector managers will keep the Guide as a constant reference during the hurricane season and beyond. We also hope that they will use it to help to prepare their Ministries, departments or agencies for the reality of hurricanes, this year and in the years ahead. The Guide is laid out in such a manner that managers can refer to the sections and subsections that may be most relevant to their needs and interests. It is also written in a manner that allows managers to copy the pages with practical suggestions and tips as a quick reference in a separate folder.  We are promulgating the Guide at the start of the 2020 hurricane season in the hope that public sector managers will use the lead time ahead of the peak of the season thoroughly familiarise themselves with the contents and to share the Guide with many colleagues. The CARICAD Schema for Post-Hurricane Recovery Management (2017) is also presented here. P ost-hurricane Recovery is a protracted, multi-dimensional, multi-sectoral, multi-component, multi-agency effort to restore a community affected by a hurricane to an acceptable level of normalcy. It is intended not only to restore life as it was but to make the community more Resilient to hazards of all kinds in future. It is costly and fraught with chaos, conflict and misunderstanding. It is a complex process that is sometimes difficult to grasp in its entirety. When there is a common understanding of the conceptual framework for Recovery there is less misunderstanding and confusion and much more collaboration, coordination and cooperation and therefore overall efficiency and effectiveness. That common understanding is critical for all key actors in the process. Public sector managers are the usual leaders of the process in a structural setting such as a Recovery Task Force. The Schema shown on the next page was developed by CARICAD as a tool to create stronger agreement and greater clarity of the process of post-hurricane recovery. It provides as a “single-page view”, a schematic that shows the process in logical, connected relationships of role, structure, systems, skills, outputs and deliverables.

19

20 One of the greatest challenges of Recovery management after a hurricane is the challenge of replacing what has been totally lost or otherwise destroyed. W e continue to reiterate our opinion that the public sector is pivotal in any crisis, emergency, or disaster situation that happens in a CARICAD member state. Tropical storms and hurricanes are persistent and perennial hazards in the Caribbean. The devasting events of the 2017 hurricane season illustrate the importance of the entire public sector being well prepared for such events. The CARICAD Secretariat had for many years made the case that effective Disaster Management in the Region was heavily dependent on a public sector that was prepared to play a critical leadership and management role in all phases of the disaster cycle. The effects of hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 made the point forcibly for yet another time. The ongoing volcanic events in St. Vincent and the Grenadines provide another reminder. The public sector includes statutory organisations, executive agencies and government companies. In those cases, the level of independence of the organisations will be greater than in a hierarchical line Ministry reporting relationship. However, the government still maintains administrative control. In the smallest of the member states the public sector may well be the most prominent provider of health, education, emergency shelter, welfare, security, utility, environmental protection and communication services. The level of readiness and response and recovery capacity of the public sector may determine the overall effectiveness of the Recovery effort. The transition to Recovery means an affected state would have gone through much of the trauma and challenge of the Response Phase and would then be moving to “return to normal” as far as possible. The commitment to returning to normal carries with it the understanding that the public sector will also be attempting to return to normal. “Normal” in a post-hurricane situation will be more aspirational than actual for many months. Public sector managers should recognise that despite the dramatic negative effects of disasters that there is a potential for the positive. Disasters create an opportunity not only to rebuild and replace but to change and improve (Transform). This suggests that there will be a need for clarity of vision, knowledge, skills and a commitment to consistent determined action to make the changes that will lead to greater resilience and sustainability. The ‘R” Framework for Recovery that we provide here is intended to help public sector managers establish clear priorities for post-hurricane Recovery.  Continues on next page

21 KEY ACTION AREAS TASKS AND ACTIVITIES REPAIR REPLACE REDUCE RE-DEVELOP RE-DEPLOY REMOVE REGAIN RETAIN  Schools  Health facilities  Other government buildings  Coastal defences  Docks and ancillary facilities  Infrastructure damaged beyond repair  Emergency Supplies  Equipment  Outmoded legislation  Vulnerability to storms, hurricanes and their associated negative effects  Vulnerability to the effects of climate change  Community-level Disaster Management structures and procedures  Hazard-resistant shelters  Search and rescue capacity  Emergency communications arrangements  Emergency water supplies  Early warning systems  Emergency warehouse arrangements  Debris removal systems  Procedures for continuity of Government  Procedures for protecting cultural and recreational facilities  Retrofit selected buildings  Critical personnel to focus on the Management of Recovery  Financial resources to meet the costs of Recovery Projects and programmes  Human-caused hazards that can increase vulnerability and the negative effects of Climate Change  A national approach to environmental protection, vulnerability reduction and Climate Change Adaptation  Needs-based, direct, welfare and housing assistance programmes  A Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) approach to vulnerability reduction  Up-to-date strategy for all phases of the Disaster Cycle  Systems and procedures for effective mass communication and information dissemination  Effective vector and rodent control systems  Strategic partnerships with the non-state sectors – private and voluntary  Pre- and post-event procedures for working with local, regional and international agencies  Gender-sensitive approaches to Recovery  A strong-focus on psychosocial issues during Recovery  Up-to-date comprehensive disaster legislation

22 by Franklyn Michael I have found that one of the most challenging of the issues in helping to prepare communities for the effects of hurricanes is that there is a tendency to focus on the characteristics and features of the storms themselves and not on the effects. In that regard I have developed the concept of the Seven Ds (7Ds) of Disaster and applied it to hurricanes, a major hazard, but it is also applicable to others that can create disasters. The graphic below displays the concept: DAMAGE Hurricanes cause extensive damage. The damage occurs across all sectors in the natural and built environments. All economic sectors, the public, social and community sectors can suffer damage. The damage can result from a combination of strong winds, heavy rains and floods. Secondary damage may occur from exposure to the elements after the initial hurricane impact. The list of areas where damage occurs is as broad as human everyday living experience.  Coastlines, beaches and reefs  Forests and vegetation  Houses  Commercial buildings  Schools  Office complexes  Airports and ports  Roads  Bridges  Boats — commercial  Vehicles  Personal effects DESTRUCTION It is important to recall that anything that can be damaged by a hurricane can also be destroyed by a hurricane, if the forces are strong enough. One of the greatest challenges in Recovery management after a hurricane is the challenge of replacing what has been totally lost or otherwise destroyed. This is particularly important in relation to critical facilities such as hospitals and airports. It is also pivotal in social recovery if many houses, tertiary institutions and schools are destroyed in a hurricane event. DEATH The graphic starts with DEATH. Hurricanes have been responsible for deaths. It must be stated that most of the deaths caused by hurricanes happen because of inland flooding and storm surge at the coastline. It appears that our member states are becoming increasingly proficient at saving lives during hurricanes. It is important to appreciate that the mere existence of a hazard does not automatically or immediately result in a disaster. There tends to be a progression from the appearance of a hazard to the negative effects that may culminate in an emergency, a crisis or a disaster. Overall vulnerability is a function of the relationship between hazards and level of risk.  Continues on next page

23 Some of the damage in Dominica from Hurricane Maria. (Photo by Yuri Jones)  Continued from previous page DISRUPTION A major hurricane impact results in disruption. The disruption relates primarily to services. Services provided by all sectors are usually suspended because the situation must be assessed and decisions taken as to how best to resume services. This often takes time. It sometimes affects essential services. DELAY Delays are common with hurricane impacts. Entities might have been directly damaged but because of disruptions that have taken place in other areas of the economy, then delays arise. A school might not have undergone serious damage but if there is extensive damage to the water system, the school cannot resume. DISORDER Hurricanes can create disorder in several ways. The disorder can result from the destruction, damage, and delay alluded to before. Additionally, disorder can result from actions by small groups of persons engaging in nefarious activities such as looting or larceny. DESPAIR There is an increasing realisation that major hurricanes can create a sense of despair that can affect individuals, families and communities. There is also the realisation that the socio/economic realities of our region indicate that the despair is often greater among women because of their living circumstances. This is an area in which there are increasingly strident calls for preventive and corrective action.

24 T he vulnerability of CARICAD member states to natural hazards in general and hurricanes and tropical storms in particular means that the planning environment across the entire public sector will be subject to the reality of the constant annual threat of storms and hurricanes. CARICAD member states are all developing states. Many of them are Small Island Developing States. This means that resources and capacity are limited by small size, small economies and small populations. Additionally, there is a growing scientific consensus that Climate Change will result in stronger storms and hurricanes. In many ways, the 2017 hurricane season was unprecedented and may well be a manifestation of the forecast about stronger storms. In September 2017 several of CARICAD’s member states suffered devastating effects from two immensely powerful hurricanes, Irma and Maria. It was obvious to the team at the CARICAD Secretariat that for the affected member states, the greatest value that CARICAD could provide in the short-term would be to contribute to the Recovery process in ways in which other strategic partners might not. In that regard and under the general intention of the Memorandum of Understanding with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDEMA), it was decided that CARICAD could use its in-house expertise in Comprehensive Disaster Management to provide a management guide for public sector managers engaged in Recovery and subsequently to develop a framework for Recovery management. It is recognised by the CARICAD Secretariat that almost all CARICAD members states are at risk from the effects of hurricanes and that the Guide for Public Sector Managers for Post-Hurricane Recovery in CARICAD Member States would be of value to all member states; especially as many of the principles, practices and tips discussed in the Guide are applicable to situations other than the passage of hurricanes. Flooding caused by Hurricane Tomas in central Castries, Saint Lucia. The CARICAD Secretariat had for many years made the case that effective Disaster Management in the region was heavily dependent on a public sector that was prepared to play a critical leadership role in all phases of the disaster cycle. The effects of hurricanes Irma and Maria have made the point forcibly. We hope that the Guide will contribute to what we advocate should become a sustained effort to build capacity in the public sector of CARICAD member  Continues on next page

25  Continued from previous page states to plan for, respond to and recover from hazards and emergencies of all kinds. The public sector takes the lead in these areas and prior preparation prevents poor performance; nowhere do results and performance matter more than during and after a disaster. Disaster Risk Reduction should become a focus of action for the entire public sector. We present excerpts from the Guide as part of this article. In Post-Hurricane Recovery a pathway must be created out of the chaos and confusion that is the natural result of the impact. There are critical areas of focus: Priorities, Deadlines and Responsibilities. Priorities There will be a clear need to establish and ratify priorities to be established at every level from the national, through Ministry, Agency, Department and Unit. This applies even if the Ministry or agency cannot work as they normally would. Priorities based on the primary national needs and the organisation’s mandate should be established and made known. The lists should be written down even if managers have no choice but to use hand-written lists. Review the lists daily and update as necessary. Deadlines In a post-hurricane situation, quick, deliberate but well thought-out actions are vital. Public sector managers should ensure that working with deadlines is an established part of their effort. In the beginning the deadlines might have to be set for each day and subsequently for each week. It is important that deadlines be reasonable but should be short-term and achievable. There is a danger that those activities with longer deadlines will keep slipping down the priority list. Review the list at least twice per day if you are Leader/Manager. Responsibilities In many post-hurricane situations responsibilities for public officers may have to be changed in the short-term. It may not be possible to have neatly typed and printed work assignments but affected officers especially if reassigned, should not be left in doubt about what is expected of them. It is important that when near normalcy returns to operations that the Performance Management processes and procedures are adapted to take account of any significant changes in responsibilities so that no individual officer is disadvantaged by an irrelevant evaluation. The Need for Speed In a post-hurricane situation, there will be a need for everything to be done quickly. That is because lives, livelihoods and the well-being of affected persons may be hanging in the balance. However, it is important that public sector managers remember  Continues on next page

26  Continued from previous page that the need for speed does not remove the need for quality work to be produced and for service standards to be maintained. In the words of Peter Drucker, “There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.” Value for money must still permeate our consciousness. A hurricane should not become an excuse for lack of accountability. Performance and Results, not Process One of the long-standing challenges to a Results Based approach to work in the public sector is the long history of the pre-eminence of processes and procedures ahead of timely performance and results. In post-hurricane situations public sector managers need to place great emphasis on achieving the desired results. It is imperative that the focus is kept on performance that produces desired results and not the process intended to produce the results. Did a meeting achieve the desired result or was it simply another well-chaired or poorly attended meeting? Focus and Locus The history of the public sector in the Region is such that locations for Ministries can be fixed for decades. In post-hurricane situations it is often not possible to maintain the same location as before the impact of the hurricane. It might mean a temporary location that is entirely new or a sharing of the Ministry’s office space with another public-sector unit. This development can present a wide range of challenges from security concerns to interpersonal conflicts over personal space. Managers will be required to use their best judgment to ensure that the focus remains on priorities, results and accomplishments and not on the locale or physical location issues. Focus on continued risk assessment; partnerships; procurement; restoration of livelihoods; innovation and creative approaches, risk reduction advocacy. Managers should promote and model a culture of professional discipline in the face of likely hardships in relation to office accommodation. However, great care should be taken to ensure that staff are not required to work under physical conditions that are patently unsafe. SUGGESTIONS  A Recovery Policy should be written and approved by Cabinet quickly  Relevant laws should be enforced  Enforcement tactics — curfew, evacuations, requisitions — should be clear  Emergency budgetary allocations should be approved and include emergency arrangements for procurement and expenditure  The lead coordinating agency should have a very clear statement of purpose and clear operational guidelines  Revised emergency staffing structure should be agreed  Relationships with Prevention, Mitigation, Preparedness, Response and Recovery agencies  Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) should be encouraged to play a prominent role along with the private sector but in a cohesive, coordinated environment with a fit-for-purpose structure and institutional architecture  The main Recovery Strategy should be quickly completed and approved with a well developed operational plan. An Action/ Operational plan must be regarded as part of the Strategy, not an optional addendum  There should be subject matter and sectoral plans, Health, Agriculture, Tourism, Infrastructure, Utilities, Water and Sanitation, Education, Psychosocial support, Social support  Mitigation measures should be underway  Checklists should be up-to-date  Exercises should be regular  Planning should be based on data and local knowledge  Continues on next page

27  Continued from previous page AT RIGHT: JOHN ADAIR’S ACTION-CENTERED LEADERSHIP THREE CIRCLE FRAMEWORK A READY REFERENCE CRIB SHEET FOR PUBLIC SECTOR LEADERS/MANAGERS TASKS PLAN Your organisation’s plan should be clear, concise and written ORGANISE Determine who does what, when, where and how DIRECT Make sure activities contribute to objectives. Be decisive CONTROL Manage all resources at your disposal to avoid waste and abuse TEAM VISION Have a vision for the team and share it STRATEGY Know what strategies you will use to achieve success INVOLVEMENT Agree on major objectives, targets and principal activities COMMUNICATION Communicate fully and frequently MANAGE TIME In a crisis, time is even more critical. It can never be re-cycled MOTIVATION  Recognise achievement  Be fair  Resolve conflicts promptly  Defend the team against spurious attacks and unfair criticism  Rotate assignments FOCUS ON THE FUTURE Plan for work and life after the crisis SYNERGY Structure the team to increase the impact of joint efforts INDIVIDUALS SKILLS Assign the person best suited to a given task EXPECTATIONS Let individuals know what you expect of them INDIVIDUALITY People are unique individuals and may react differently in a crisis. Give feedback sensitively especially when it is mostly negative THE HUMAN TOUCH Advise, counsel and reassure DISCIPLINE Praise in public censure in private, but be prompt EMPOWER Give authority in line with Competence and Commitment OPPORTUNITIES Provide avenues for learning new skills

28 The following article is not an original CARICAD article; it comprises substantial excerpts from an article sourced from: https://www.barbadosweather.org/PDF_Uploads/ Can%20Barbados%20be%20Hit.pdf The article seeks to explain the reason why Barbados appears to escape strikes from major hurricanes and with long periods in between direct strikes. However the article makes the point that the historical record shows that Barbados has been hit many times by devastating hurricanes. We therefore support the efforts of the Government of Barbados, CDEMA and the Department of Disaster Management (DEM) in Barbados to prepare for storms and hurricanes and encourage residents and visitors to heed the information, advice, guidance and training being constantly provided. Please note that the article was written before the turn of the century. Hurricane Elsa struck Barbados on Friday July 2, 2021. The website from which the excerpts for the article were taken also expressed thanks to a former Director of the Barbados Meteorological Service Deighton Best and the Barbados Museum and Historical Society. — CARICAD, June 2022 A lways a near miss for Barbados, why do hurricanes always tend to veer off Barbados? Or do they? Some say it's divine providence, others attribute it to the island's geographical location, yet others believe there is a 50-year cycle and Barbados is due for another strike soon. What really is the truth? These are some of the questions which this article explores in light of near misses, forecasters' predictions and religious prophecies. In fact, hurricanes used Barbados for target practice in the last 300 years, but compared to the 1600s, the 1700s, and the 1800s, this century (20th) has been quiet. Between 1627, when Barbados was colonised, and 1899, 23 hurricanes directly affected Barbados, caused billions of dollars in damage (at today's prices), killed thousands, and destroyed the economy on more than one occasion. In the 1600s, four hurricanes devastated Barbados, in the 1700s five systems directly affected Barbados, two causing devastation, and in the 1800s there were 17 hurricanes. The majority of these systems went right over Barbados. Source: WW 2010, Department of Atmospheric Sciences. The University of Illinois at Urbana — Department of Atmospheric Sciences, with data from Colorado State/Tropical Prediction Center hosted by Unisys Weather Major Impacts says: This century (20th) there were five "impacts" including Hurricane Janet, a small but powerful system, the centre of which passed not far off the South Coast of Barbados in 1955 mainly impacting the southern part of Barbados. It killed 35 people, destroyed 8,100 homes and left 20,000 homeless. Hurricane Allen in 1980 was a big hurricane which passed north of Barbados destroying 35 homes and damaging more than 200, especially in St. Andrew. Edith in 1963 passed 50 miles north of Barbados, dumping seven to nine inches of rain on the island. On July 2, 1901 Tropical Storm #2 passed seven miles south of Barbados dumping more than 20 inches of rain in St. Peter, killing one man. This  Continues on next page

29  Continued from previous page was known, for a period of time afterwards, as the Jordan's Flood. On August 31, 1949 Tropical Storm #3 dumped over 10 inches of rain in St. Thomas, St. George, St. Joseph, and St. John and five to six inches in northern parishes. A tropical depression on October 1, 1970 also triggered massive floods in St. Michael in general and Bridgetown in particular which became known as the 1970 floods. There were another 13 systems which passed within 40 miles of Barbados this century (20th). The worse systems which levelled Barbados were 1675, 1780, and 1831. On August 31, 1675, the hurricane appeared to have passed off the West Coast destroying numerous plantations, especially along the western side of the island. On October 10, 1780, a very slow moving hurricane struck Barbados on a Tuesday evening and battered the island "almost without intermission for nearly 48 hours" leaving the island looking like "a country laid waste by fire and sword", Commander-in-Chief Major General Vaughan wrote to England. There was near total destruction with 4,326 dead and over £1 million in damage. Retired meteorologist, Deighton Best, said the hurricane which struck on August 10, 1831 was perhaps the most powerful ever to hit Barbados. "I would rate the winds at 200 miles per hour. It left damage at more than £2 million and about 1,525 dead, though the figure could have been as high as 2,500. I would rate this similar in strength to Hugo when it was approaching the Eastern Caribbean," he told the NATION. The 1831 hurricane struck at 5 p.m. and battered Barbados for 12 hours. A writer of the day said the rain “was driven with such force as to injure the skin and was so thick as to prevent a view of any object". Waves broke over the North Point cliffs which were 70 feet high. Barbados has not seen this kind of activity this century (20Th) and as a result, a popular notion has arisen that there must be some special providence protecting the island because cyclones do not hit Barbados. While this is debatable, there are physical reasons why systems curve northwest, bypassing Barbados and other Caribbean islands. "If a hurricane forms to the east of Barbados, there is a 90 per cent probability that it will pass to the north of the island and this is because of the Coriolis Force," explained Best. Because of the earth's anticlockwise rotation and the direction of the Trade  Continues on next page

30  Continued from previous page Winds, air movement is deflected to the right in the northern hemisphere and to the left in the southern hemisphere: all things being equal. Even when there were close brushes, Barbados misses the strongest winds which are normally in the northern eyewall, said the late professor William Gray. He also explained that if Barbados takes a direct hit, it is likely to be very bad not only because of those northern winds but because systems which are likely to hit the island will be strong given the location of formation and direction they will travel. Best concurred that systems forming close to Barbados posed greater risks, though if they formed too close they are not that severe because there is not much time for development of the strong winds, though rainfall would be a factor. He agreed that the storms likely to hit Barbados were the ones forming between 8¼° and 11¼° North and as long as they were east of Barbados, they were always a threat. "As long as they form east of Barbados my advice to the public is: be alert but be extra careful if they form east-south-east of Barbados," said Best. There have been major hurricane impacts since colonisation in Barbados:  1660, December: Hurricane. Vessels ran aground.  1674, August 10: Very strong hurricane. 300 buildings destroyed; 200 dead; no sugarcane for two years.  1675, August 31: Strong hurricane. Island devastated  1694, October 17: Weak hurricane passes. Ships thrown ashore.  1780, October 10: Slow moving hurricane. Barbados battered for 48 hours. 4,326 dead; £1 million damage.  1786, September: Severe gale. Every vessel driven ashore. Great damage to homes and crops. Many people killed.  1813, July 22: Tropical storm passed north. Ships damaged.  1815, September 29: Hurricane passed north of island. Gale force winds experienced.  1816, September 15: Hurricane passed north. Heavy rains; severe flooding; stores damaged.  1817, October 21: Passing hurricane damaged ships.  1819, October 13: Hurricane. Two dead; heavy rains; Foster Hall landslides; ships wrecked.  1822, December 19: Hurricane passed north; winds from south and west; very heavy seas.  1831, August 10: Severe hurricane. Over £2 million damage; 1,525 dead.  1837, July 9: Tropical storm hit island. Vessels thrown ashore; one church destroyed; chimneys blown down.  Continues on next page

31  Continued from previous page  1846, September 11: Severe tropical storm passed south and drove vessels ashore.  1848, September 18: Tropical storm passed north dumping much rain.  1855, August 24: Tropical storm killed three; drove boats ashore. Rainfall was 9 inches at Edgecumbe and 10.36 inches at Bayfield.  1872, September 8: Severe thunderstorm. Between 8.01 and 11.02 inches of rain  1877, September 21: Tropical storm passed over Barbados. No serious damage.  1886, August 15: Hurricane passed 40 miles north of Barbados. Gale force winds; 7-9 inches of rain; floods in St. Michael; landslides in St. Joseph and St. Thomas  1894, October 12: Tropical storm passed northwest. Destroyed hundreds of homes; 18 fishermen missing.  1898, September 10: Strong hurricane passed south. 83 dead; 9 937 houses destroyed, 4, 519 damaged; 50, 000 homeless.  1901, July 2: Tropical storm passed south. Severe floods, more than 20 inches of rain in St. Peter killing one person.  1949, August 31: Weak tropical storm dumped over 10 inches of rain in St. Joseph, St. John, St. Thomas, St. George; 5 to 6 inches of rain in the north.  1955: September 22: Hurricane Janet passed south of Barbados. Winds over 110 mph damaged or destroyed 8,100 small houses, 20,000 homeless.  1963, September 24: Hurricane Edith passed 50 miles south; 7 to 8 inches rain.  1970, October 1: Tropical depression. Flooding in Bridgetown and St. Michael.  1980, August 3: Hurricane Allen passed north of Barbados. Destroyed about 35 houses and damaged 200 more. END OF EXCERPTS END NOTE BY FRANKLYN MICHAEL It is worth remembering that in the 21st Century Barbados has had at least two significant storm or hurricane impacts, Tropical Storm Tomas in 2010 and Tropical Storm/Hurricane Elsa in 2021. We provide a synopsis of the passage of Tomas below and a stand-alone synopsis of Tropical Strom/ Hurricane Elsa elsewhere in the newsletter. Barbados has an interesting geographical reality. It is approximately 125 miles east of the main chain of Eastern Caribbean Islands. It is virtually midway between the Northern and Southern Islands in the east of the chain. This means that when the Windward Islands are under direct threat from a storm, Barbados is likely to experience adverse weather before St. Lucia and St. Vincent. In their paper issued on March 7, 2011 entitled, Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Tomas (AL212010) 29 October-7 November 2010 Richard J. Pasch and Todd B. Kimberlain of the National Hurricane Center wrote: “While continuing to strengthen, Tomas turned north-westward and its forward speed slowed as it approached the Windward Islands. The cyclone then resumed a west-north-westward heading, and the center passed over the southern coast of Barbados around 0900 UTC 30 October. A couple of hours after its center departed Barbados, Tomas became a hurricane. The eye of the hurricane moved over the northern coast of St. Vincent around 2000 UTC 30 October, while the intense northern eyewall passed over St. Lucia Damage in Barbados and St. Vincent was less severe. Tomas downed trees and power lines ripped off roofs and knocked out power on these islands. No casualties were reported in Barbados or St. Vincent. Approximately 1200 homes were damaged in Barbados, and island wide damage was estimated to be near 8.5 million U.S. dollars. The damage estimate is 3.3 million U.S. dollars in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.”

32 SOURCE: Ready Campaign FEMA/DHS 500 C St, SW Washington, DC 20472 https://www.ready.gov/kit A basic emergency supply kit could include the following recommended items:  Water (one gallon per person per day for several days, for drinking and sanitation)  Food (at least a several-day supply of non-perishable food)  Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert  Flashlight  First aid kit  Extra batteries  Whistle (to signal for help)  Dust mask (to help filter contaminated air)  Plastic sheeting and duct tape (to shelter in place)  Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties (for personal sanitation)  Wrench or pliers (to turn off utilities)  Manual can opener (for food)  Local maps  Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery Additional Emergency Supplies Since Spring of 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended people include additional items in their kits to help prevent the spread of coronavirus or other viruses and the flu. Consider adding the following items to your emergency supply kit based on your individual needs:  Masks (for everyone ages two and above), soap, hand sanitiser, disinfecting wipes to disinfect surfaces  Prescription medications. About half of all Americans take a prescription medicine every day. An emergency can make it difficult for them to refill their prescription or to find an open pharmacy.  Continues on next page T o assemble your kit, store items in airtight plastic bags and put your entire disaster supplies kit in one or two easy-to-carry containers such as plastic bins or a duffel bag.

33  Continued from previous page Organize and protect your prescriptions, over-the-counter drugs, and vitamins to prepare for an emergency.  Non-prescription medications such as pain relievers, anti-diarrhea medication, antacids or laxatives  Prescription eyeglasses and contact lens solution  Infant formula, bottles, diapers, wipes and diaper rash cream  Pet food and extra water for your pet  Cash or traveller's checks  Important family documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records saved electronically or in a waterproof, portable container  Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person  Complete change of clothing appropriate for your climate and sturdy shoes  Fire extinguisher  Matches in a waterproof container  Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items  Mess kits, paper cups, plates, paper towels and plastic utensils  Paper and pencil  Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children Maintaining Your Kit After assembling your kit remember to maintain it so it’s ready when needed:  Keep canned food in a cool, dry place.  Store boxed food in tightly closed plastic or metal containers.  Replace expired items as needed.  Re-think your needs every year and update your kit as your family’s needs change. Kit Storage Locations  Since you do not know where you will be when an emergency occurs, prepare supplies for home, work and cars.  Home: Keep this kit in a designated place and have it ready in case you have to leave your home quickly. Make sure all family members know where the kit is kept.  Work: Be prepared to shelter at work for at least 24 hours. Your work kit should include food, water and other necessities like medicines, as well as comfortable walking shoes, stored in a “grab and go” case.  Car: In case you are stranded, keep a kit of emergency supplies in your car. Last Updated: May 10, 2022

34  That there is an average of nine hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic each year  The 2020 hurricane season is the first in which there have been three named storms by June 2  The Atlantic Basin includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico  At least one hurricane has appeared in each month of the year in the Atlantic  September is considered the peak month for Atlantic hurricanes  Several hurricanes have occurred on December 25 (Christmas Day) in the Caribbean in historic times  A storm is not classified as a hurricane until the sustained winds are at least 74 miles per hour  Hurricane Irma in 2017 had sustained wind speeds of at least 185 per hour  Hurricanes are downgraded to tropical storm status if the sustained winds drop below 74 miles per hour  Barbados is the most easterly of the islands in the Caribbean chain  Belize is not a Caribbean island, but it is also subject to the threat of hurricanes  Hurricanes can do extensive damage through heavy (torrential) rainfall even if the winds are of minimal hurricane strength. It has been reported that a hurricane once drenched Texas with 23 inches of rain in 24 hours  A hurricane may be as much as six hundred (600) miles in diameter  The winds in a hurricane spin in an anticlockwise manner  A Knot is a measure of speed. It is one nautical mile per hour. It is slightly longer that a statute mile. You can convert Knots per hour to miles per hour by multiplying the figure by 1.15  Antigua & Barbuda Meteorological Services  Bahamas Meteorology Department  Barbados Weather  Barbados Weather on Yahoo  Barbados Weather at CDEMA  National Meteorological Service of Belize  CDEMA  Department of Emergency Management (DEM) Barbados  Grenada Meteorological Office  Meteorological Service of Jamaica  Saint Lucia Meteorological Services  Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service  NATIONAL Hurricane Centre  Weather Channel  Weather Underground  World Meteorological Organization

35 C ARICAD encourages you to become familiar with the specific terms that are used in official circles in relation to tropical storms and hurricanes. The more familiar you are with the meanings of the terms, the more confident you will be with your own Preparedness and the more likely you will be to help others to prepare. The following are among those terms: SOURCE – National Hurricane Centre – USA Advisory: Official information issued by tropical cyclone warning centres describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and precautions that should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe: (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones. They are usually issued every six hours. Special advisories are issued when there is a significant change in storm-related weather conditions. Centre (Center): Generally speaking, the vertical axis of a tropical cyclone, usually defined by the location of minimum wind or minimum pressure. The cyclone centre position can vary with altitude. Cyclone: An atmospheric closed circulation rotating counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Eye: The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the centre of a severe tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud. Eyewall/Wall Cloud: An organised band or ring of cumulonimbus clouds that surround the eye, or light-wind canter of a tropical cyclone. Eyewall and wall cloud are used synonymously. Gale Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 kit (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 47 knots (54 mph or 87 km/hr) inclusive, either predicted or occurring and not directly associated with tropical cyclones. High Wind Warning: A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 knots (40 mph or 64 km/hr) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 knots (58 mph or 93 km/hr) or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land. Hurricane/Typhoon: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline. Hurricane Season: The portion of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes. The hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico runs from June 1 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin runs from May 15 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin runs from June 1 to November 30. Hurricane Warning: A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.  Continues on next page

36  Continued from previous page Hurricane Watch: An announcement for specific coastal areas that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Indirect Hit: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least four feet above normal. Landfall: The intersection of the surface centre of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the centre, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Major Hurricane: A hurricane that is classified as Category 3 or higher. Storm Surge: An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide. Storm Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 knots t (55 mph or 88 km/hr) or greater, predicted or occurring, not directly associated with tropical cyclones. Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 knots (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less. Tropical Disturbance: A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organised convection — generally 100 to 300 nautical miles in diameter — originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field. Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 knots (39 mph or 63 km/ hr) to 63 knots (73 mph or 118 km/hr). Tropical Storm Warning: A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less. Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. Tropical Wave: A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere.

37 T he ‘I AM CARICOM’ campaign is designed to increase visibility and understanding of CARICOM by engaging and enabling citizens of the Community and beyond to locate themselves within the CARICOM construct, institutions, governance structure and policies and participate fully in the continued integration and development of the Region. A key aspect of the campaign is to promote the CARICOM Identity and Spirit of Community including coordinating the celebration and observation of CARICOM Day by all implementing partners across the Community on 4 July each year. To encourage full participation and active involvement during this year’s CARICOM Day, Regional Institutions like CARICAD were invited to undertake activities to celebrate and observe CARICOM Day/Week from 27 June to 8 July 2022. For more information visit: http://www.caricom.org DISCLAIMER FOR HORIZON HURRICANE EDITION The information provided in this newsletter is set in the context of CARICAD’S Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with CDEMA. The MOU was signed in 2016. It is stated in the Rationale that both CARICAD and CDEMA have the ultimate aim of facilitating and supporting sustainable development and on improving capacity within member states. The two institutions also agreed to continue joint efforts to mainstream Disaster Risk Reduction. Therefore, the contents of this newsletter are not intended to replace, duplicate or supplant any information provided by CDEMA or the National Disaster Offices of CARICAD member states. It is intended to reinforce their efforts. THE TEAM The CARICAD Horizon is a regular publication of the Caribbean Centre for Development Administration (CARICAD). The Horizon has superseded the “Chronicle”. The Editor-in-Chief is CARICAD’s Executive Director, Devon Rowe. The Production Team comprises: Franklyn Michael, Rosemund Warrington, Dr. Lois Parkes, Trudy Waterman, Angela Eversley and Petra Emmanuel. Previous editions can be viewed at: March 2022 December 2021 October 2021 Special Hurricane Edition June 2021 March 2021 October 2020 July-August 2020 Special Hurricane Edition June 2020 Special COVID-19 Edition May 2020 March 2020 December 2019 October 2019 Board Meeting 2019 Special Edition April 2019 December 2018 August 2018 December 2017 July 2017 1st Floor Weymouth Corporate Centre, Roebuck Street, Bridgetown, Barbados Tel: 246-427-8535 Email: caricad@caricad.net Website: www.caricad.net

1 Publizr

Index

1. 1
2. 2
3. 3
4. 4
5. 5
6. 6
7. 7
8. 8
9. 9
10. 10
11. 11
12. 12
13. 13
14. 14
15. 15
16. 16
17. 17
18. 18
19. 19
20. 20
21. 21
22. 22
23. 23
24. 24
25. 25
26. 26
27. 27
28. 28
29. 29
30. 30
31. 31
32. 32
33. 33
34. 34
35. 35
36. 36

Home