THE SAUGUS ADVOCATE – FRIDAY, APRIL 9, 2021 Page 9 Local doctors weigh in on latest spike in COVID-19 cases By Christopher Roberson D octors at area hospitals agree that the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases was triggered not only by the variant forms of the virus, but also by countless individuals who have grown weary of living with a pandemic for the past year. On April 1, the state Department of Public Health reported that 55 communities were in the red category of COVID-19 transmission. Everett has slipped back into the red category with a positivity rate of 5.3 percent. Saugus is also in the red category with a positivity rate of 6.1 percent. Malden and Revere are in the yellow category with positivity rates of 3.9 and 3.8 percent, respectively. “Variants are contributing to the increase in cases in Massachusetts,” said Dr. Lou Ann Bruno-Murtha, division chief of infectious diseases at Cambridge Health Alliance. “The more infectious B.1.1.7 variant (UK variant) is increasingly being identified in Massachusetts and the P1 variant (Brazilian variant) is also beginning to increase.” On April 4, renowned epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm made a bold prediction on NBC’s Meet the Press. “Let me say that, at this time, we really are in a category five hurricane status,” he said. “At this point, we will see the highest number of cases reported globally since the beginning of the pandemic. We’re just at the beginning of this surge; we haven’t even really begun to see it yet.” Despite her deep respect for Osterholm, Bruno-Murtha said she is “more optimistic for Massachusetts.” “We have maintained a state mask mandate and our vaccination program has been increasingly efficient,” she said. “As of April 5, 38 percent of residents have received at least one vaccine.” She also said that time is of the essence regarding the ongoing rollout of the vaccines. “The quicker we administer vaccines, the sooner we will have the upper hand on this pandemic,” said Bruno-Murtha. “I remain hopeful we will not experience another surge in Massachusetts.” Dr. Brian Chow, an attending physician at Tufts Medical Center, said there are approximately 700 cases of the UK variant in Massachusetts. He said the Brazilian variant also gained a foothold following the recent outbreak on Cape Cod. “We are all very concerned about the trajectory of the number of cases, particularly in Massachusetts,” said Chow. “Whether the next surge arrives will depend on our actions today. Now is the time to act to prevent the next surge.” With Massachusetts now in the final phase of the Reopening Plan, Chow agreed with Bruno-Murtha that vaccinations must continue without delay. “We are in a race against time to get vaccines into arms,” he said. “It takes at least 14 days after the final dose of vaccine to be protected. For Pfizer or Moderna, that could be as long as five to seven weeks after the first dose.” Dr. Stephen Kissler of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health said that while the variants pose a signifiSelectmen seek candidate to fill vacant Saugus Cable TV Board of Directors seat A pplications are being accepted by the Saugus Board of Selectmen to fill a vacancy on the Saugus Cable TV Board of Directors. This is a nonpaying/volunteer position. Please submit your letter of intent to the Board of Selectmen, 298 Central St., Saugus, MA 01906 by April 31, 2021. Thank you. LIKE US ON FACEBOOK ADVOCATE NEWSPAPER FACEBOOK.COM/ADVOCATE.NEWS.MA cant threat, another shutdown should not be necessary. He said that during the past year healthcare professionals have learned an incredible amount of information pertaining to the spread of COVID-19. For example, he said the probability of contracting the virus by going to the grocery store is fairly minimal, particularly when everyone is wearing a mask. In contrast, Kissler said indoor dining creates a much greater risk. “That’s the real concern that I have,” he said. Kissler also said there will likely be a short-term surge from those who went away for Easter or Passover. “I think we will probably see some surge,” he said. Dr. Benjamin Linas, an associate professor at the Boston University School of Medicine, said relaxing restrictions all but guarantees that the number of cases will escalate. “It is just a fact of life, like gravity,” he said. “Until we reach full herd immunity, this is just a law of nature.” Although Linas agreed with Osterholm about the possibility of a fourth surge, he continues to have a great deal of confidence in the vaccines. “We are in a truly novel position; we have never seen the epidemiology of COVID in the context of widespread vaccination,” he said. “It is definitely possible that we are in the first days of a surge, but it is also possible that the surge is ultimately truncated by successful vaccination efforts.” However, Linas said there is also the risk of variants developing that are immune to the vaccines. “That is possible, the best way to prevent that from happening is to end this before it happens, which means wearing masks and distancing while we vaccinate as fast as humans have ever vaccinated an entire population,” he said. However, Linas stressed that the uptick in cases is not the result of schools reopening. “Schools are too essential to loosely blame for epidemiology that has many other clear explanations,” he said. “Our goal should be to keep schools open, even with another surge, unless it becomes very clear that there is a great deal of inschool transmission occurring.” In addition, Linas said the reopening process has been moving too fast. “We are too quick to reopen indoor dining and to allow fans back at sporting events. I know that no one wants to hear this, but no one wants a fourth surge without acknowledging the laws of nature,” he said. “I am sensitive to the need for economic recovery and identify strongly with small business owners who are facing existential financial threats. But we are so close. I really think that with a concerted effort to limit our interactions and double down on masks and distance, combined with ongoing vaccination efforts, we could be at herd immunity by the end of the summer. We can see the finish line; now is the time to dig deep and begin the hard sprint to the end.”
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