BUILDER NEWS Statement from NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald on ITC Lumber Ruling G ranger MacDonald, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas, issued the following statement on today’s ruling by the International Trade Commission (ITC) that lumber shipments from Canada pose a threat of injury to domestic lumber producers: “We are disappointed by the ITC ruling and believe this is a protectionist measure designed to safeguard the interests of major domestic lumber producers at the expense of American consumers. This decision means the tariffs imposed by the Commerce Department will remain in effect for Canadian lumber shipments into the U.S. These tariffs are acting as a tax on American home buyers and lumber consumers. “NAHB estimates that these tariffs will increase the price of an average singlefamily home built in 2018 by $1,360. Since the U.S. doesn’t’ produce enough lumber to meet the nation’s domestic needs, we need to take steps to boost domestic production. At the same time, the U.S. and Canada need to hammer out an equitable agreement to resolve this ongoing trade dispute that will provide American consumers a steady supply of lumber at a reasonable price.” Read More Impact of the Canadian Lumber Duties on the U.S. Economy in 2018 O n November 2, 2017, the Commerce Department announced its final decision to impose duties averaging 20.83 percent on Canadian softwood lumber shipments into the U.S. The impacts of these duties on the U.S. economy next year will include increased production by U.S. sawmills, reduced imports from Canada, and higher prices paid for lumber by consumers in the U.S., which in turn will lead to a reduced volume of new residential construction. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that the bottom line impact of these effects in 2018 will be a net loss of $576.9 million in wages and salaries for U.S. workers, $404.0 million in taxes and other revenue for governments in the U.S., and 9,370 full-time U.S. jobs. The jobs are measured in Full Time Equivalents (enough work to keep a worker employed full-time for a year, based on the average hours worked per week in each affected industry). NAHB’s estimates for calendar year 2018 require a baseline projection of the relevant economic activity and prices that would have prevailed in the absence of the duties. Because preliminary duties were announced and being anticipated throughout 2017, the baseline projections for the percentage breakdown of lumber produced in, imported into, and exported out of the U.S., as well as lumber prices, are based on 2016 data. The source of data on lumber production in 2016 is the Lumber Track newsletter issued on November 6, 2017 by the Western Wood Products Association. The source of data on lumber prices is a mid-2016 Lumber Market Report issued by Random Lengths, adjusted for inflation using the annual increase in the Consumer Price Index in 2017 and 2018 (from NAHB’s Economic and Housing Forecast dated 11/13/2017). NAHB’s forecast is also the source for housing starts and residential fixed investment in 2018. Read More 16 HBRA of Fairfield County | DECEMBER 2017
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